Consumer confidence dropped even more in July

Consumer confidence in areas of residence and population groups

In July, consumer confidence was, as usual, clearly strongest in Greater Helsinki (CCI -10.2). Confidence was weakest in Northern Finland (-21.3). Of population groups, students were most optimistic (-4.2). In July, pensioners clearly had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development (-27.3). More detailed information is available in the figures and database tables.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

Both consumers’ assessments of their own economy at present and expectations concerning it grew gloomier in July compared to June and especially compared to July last year. Expectations concerning Finland’s economy in 12 months also weakened clearly from one year ago but remained more or less unchanged compared to June.

In July, all views on both consumers’ own economy and Finland’s economy were very pessimistic. Expectations concerning consumers’ own economy in 12 months were gloomiest in the entire measuring history from 1995 to 2022.

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As many as 75 per cent of consumers thought in July that Finland's economic situation is now worse than a year ago, and only seven per cent of consumers felt that it was better. Already 28 per cent of consumers thought that their own economy is at the moment worse than one year ago. Only 22 per cent of consumers regarded their own economy stronger in July than one year ago.

In July, 13 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months. More than one half, or 58 per cent of consumers, thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In all, 22 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve and already clearly more, or 31 per cent, feared it would worsen over the year.

Unemployment and its threat

Consumers' expectations concerning the development of the general unemployment situation in Finland weakened in July but still remained on a long-term average level. Of consumers, 21 per cent expected that unemployment would decrease over the next year, while more of them than before, or 38 per cent, thought that unemployment would increase.

At the same time, estimates of the personal threat of unemployment or temporary lay-off experienced by employed persons, that is, wage and salary earners and self-employed persons, improved and was fairly bright in July. Eight per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 11 per cent thought the risk had grown. On the other hand, around one half, or 52 per cent, of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment or temporary lay-off at all.

Inflation

In July, consumers’ estimates concerning inflation at the time of the survey rose to its highest in measuring history. By contrast, expectations concerning inflation in 12 months decreased slightly from the record figure in June.

In July, consumers estimated that consumer prices have risen by 7.1 per cent from the year before and would go up by 6.1 per cent over the next year. In all, 84 per cent of consumers thought prices had risen much or fairly much over the year, and 69 per cent expected prices to rise at least at the same rate over the coming months as well.

Financial situation, saving and raising a loan

In July, the time was considered very poor for raising a loan and unfavourable for saving as well. Only 19 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for taking out a loan and only 44 per cent thought the time was favourable for saving. However, intentions related to raising a loan was as high as the long-term average among consumers. In July, 16 per cent of consumers were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers considered their own financial situation to still be good in July and expected their saving possibilities to be average in the coming months. In July, 60 per cent of consumers had been able to lay aside some money and 71 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

Spending and intentions to make large purchases

In July, the time was considered more or less worst ever for buying durable goods. Only 14 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying.

In July, consumers had very few intentions to spend money on durable goods during the next 12 months. Intentions to buy diminished from June and especially from twelve months back. In July, 10 per cent of consumers planned on increasing and 44 per cent on reducing their spending on durable goods over the next 12 months.

Buying a car during the next 12 months was in July already considered to a lesser extent than the long-term average. The same applies to intentions to buy a dwelling or build a house during the next 12 months. Plans for renovating one’s dwelling also decreased in July to the average level.

In July, only 13 per cent of consumers were either definitely or possibly going to buy a car during the next 12 months. Only 12 per cent of consumers considered buying a dwelling. Of consumers, 18 per cent were planning to spend money on renovating their home during the next 12 months.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) survey results concerning economic expectations for all EU countries are released monthly on the European Commission website.

Concepts

The balance figures (balances) are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator (CCI/A1) is the average of the balances for the CCI components. The components of the CCI are: consumer's own economy now (B1), consumer's own economy in 12 months (B2), Finland's economy in 12 months (B4) and consumer's spending money on major purchases in the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months (E1). The balances and the CCI can range between -100 and +100 – the higher balance or CCI, the brighter the view on the economy.

Data set for the statistics

In July, in all, 967 responses were gained. Of responses, 74 per cent came from the web questionnaire (of the sample 33%). The non-response rate of the survey was 55.5 per cent. This includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted. Possible over-coverage (dead, inmates of institutions, moved abroad, etc.) is also included in non-response here.