Trend Indicator of Output

Producer: Statistics Finland
Homepage: http://www.stat.fi/til/ktkk/index_en.html
Main topic: National Accounts
Related topics:
Official Statistics of Finland (OSF): Yes
European Statistical System (ESS): No

Description

The Trend Indicator of Output endeavours to forecast the monthly development of the national economy. It contains index series since January 1996. The data are in the form of an index whose base year is always the previous year. The data have been calculated as original and working day adjusted series for the whole economy and for three main industries. A seasonally adjusted and a trend series are also calculated for the whole economy.

Data content

The information system of Statistics Finland’s Trend Indicator of Output is comprised of a data file containing time series on three main industries and the whole economy.

The data are public.

Classifications used

Three main industries: primary production, secondary production and services.

Data collection methods and data sources

The calculation of industry-specific data is based primarily on value data deflated according to the average prices of the year before. This produces volume figures at previous year's prices, in which the previous year is always the base year. Volume changes at previous year's prices are used to chain a continuous volume series at reference year 2000 prices with the so-called annual overlap method. This series is published as the Trend Indicator of Output. This method corresponds to the deflation and chaining method applied to quarterly accounts output. In the publication 64 sources are used in calculations to describe both value data and price development. The time series have been completely revised from 1996 onwards in accordance with the new sources and methods.

The source data used in the calculation of the Trend Indicator of Output comprise most of the data used in quarterly national accounts. The calculation is performed at the 2-digit level of the classification of economic activities but without a breakdown by sector as in quarterly national accounts. Intermediate consumption is not estimated separately either. For manufacturing and private services the primary sources of value data are preliminary data from turnover indices and for public services preliminary data from wage and salary indices, while producer price indices and indices of wage and salary earnings are used as sources for price data. The source data for primary production derive from information on volumes of milk received by dairies, slaughterhouse statistics, crop production statistics, data on market fellings, and unit price data corresponding with these volume data.

The historical time series is benchmarked against published quarterly accounts. This methodological measure aimed at improving the quality of the statistics is justified by the fact that quarterly and annual accounts are based on more comprehensive sources than the Trend Indicator of Output, and in order to produce a coherent history of the economy, the exploitation of the information contained in quarterly and annual accounts through benchmarking methods has generally been seen as worthwhile. The historical time series of the Trend Indicator of Output is benchmarked against the value added series of quarterly accounts. Thus the historical time series of the Trend Indicator of Output follows the development of quarterly and annual accounts. In spite of the benchmarking, the Trend Indicator of Output cannot be regarded as a genuine predictor of value added. Estimation of intermediation consumption is not done like in quarterly accounts, and benchmarking is not done for the latest months of a quarter not yet published in quarterly accounts but their values are taken into the time series against changes in output indicators.