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Published: 28 June 2010

Consumer confidence strongest in three years

Consumers’ confidence in the economy gained strength in June. In June the consumer confidence indicator stood at 18.7, while in May it was 15.8 and in April 17.9. In June confidence in the economy was at the same time clearly better than the long-term average and strongest since summer 2007. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,402 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 June.

Consumer confidence indicator

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning development of unemployment and Finland’s economic situation improved in June compared with the previous month. Consumers’ views about their own economy and saving possibilities remained unchanged and bright. In June consumers considered the time favourable for taking out a loan and for saving as well.

In June, 47 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 17 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 43 and 21 per cent in May and 45 and 24 per cent one year ago. In all, 27 per cent of consumers believed in June that their own economy would improve and only nine per cent of them feared it would worsen over the coming year. Twelve months ago the corresponding proportions were 25 and 12 per cent.

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Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Altogether 30 per cent of consumers thought in June that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the year, and as many believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 28 and 38 per cent in May and gloomy 15 and 64 per cent one year ago.

In June, 13 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 18 per cent thought it had grown. One year previously the corresponding proportions were seven and 30 per cent. In June, 47 per cent of employed persons thought the threat of unemployment had remained unchanged and 22 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in June that consumer prices would go up by 2.2 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.1 per cent.

In June, 64 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. One year previously the corresponding proportion was 57 per cent. Sixty-eight per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and as many as 81 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In June, 69 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Twelve months ago the respective proportion was 62 per cent. In June, 14 per cent of households were planning to take out a loan within one year.

In June, 52 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Twelve months earlier the corresponding percentage was 59. Consumption intentions were mostly moderate in June, but many households had plans to spend money on, for instance, travel and buying of hobby equipment during the next six months. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and eight per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In last year’s June the corresponding proportions were almost the same, or 16 and seven per cent.

Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland, balances

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	06/2009	05/2010	06/2010	Outlook
Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	13,0	21,8	-6,5	8,4	15,8	18,7	+
Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	9,1	14,1	2,3	7,1	10,3	10,0	+/-
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	36,8	52,0	10,9	47,4	49,3	50,5	+
Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	4,8	24,2	-27,1	9,2	10,0	15,1	+
Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	1,3	27,6	-51,1	-30,1	-6,5	-1,0	+/-
Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,1	4,6	0,6	1,5	2,3	2,2
Favourability of time for buying durable goods (balance)	21,1	41,8	-14,2	36,1	25,8	29,7	+
Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,9	36,8	-19,6	9,9	16,5	18,4	+
Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	18,4	42,0	-47,1	16,8	22,2	26,2	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column:

++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor,-- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries will be later released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2010, June. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo (09) 1734 3598, kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Ari Tyrkkö

Publication in pdf-format (393.9 kB)

Reviews

• 1. Overview of the past (28.6.2010)
• 2. Method of the Consumer Survey (28.6.2010)

Tables

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• Database tables and their variables
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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland (28.6.2010)

Figures

• Figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (28.6.2010)
• Figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (28.6.2010)
• Figure 3. Own economy (28.6.2010)
• Figure 4. Finland's economy (28.6.2010)
• Figure 5. Inflation (28.6.2010)
• Figure 6. Unemployment (28.6.2010)
• Figure 7. Favourability of time for (28.6.2010)
• Figure 8. Household's financial situation (28.6.2010)
• Figure 9. Intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (28.6.2010)
• Figure10. Spending on durable goods, next 12 months vs last 12 months (28.6.2010)
• Figure 11. Intentions to buy, next 12 months (28.6.2010)

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Updated 28.6.2010