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Published: 27 November 2014

Consumer confidence still weak and consumption intentions bland

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 2.6 in November, having been 0.4 in October and -0.7 in September. One year ago in November the consumer confidence indicator received the value 6.4. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 11.9. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,254 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 3 and 19 November.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning own saving possibilities and Finland's economy and unemployment, improved slightly in November compared with October. In contrast, views on one’s own economy remained unchanged. In November, the views on Finland's economy were, however, still gloomy and on one's own economy cautious, while the expectations concerning saving possibilities were good.

Consumers regarded the time more favourable for raising a loan than for saving or in particular for buying durable goods in November. The personal threat of unemployment experienced by employed persons was slightly higher in November than in October.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In November, 25 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 36 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In October the respective proportions were 21 and 35 per cent and twelve months ago 33 and 26 per cent.

In all, 23 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economy would improve and 16 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One year ago, the respective proportions were 25 and 13 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 10 per cent of consumers thought in November that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the next year, while 62 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were nine and 68 per cent one month ago and 13 and 55 per cent one year ago.

In November, eight per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 26 per cent thought it had grown. Forty-seven per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 19 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in November that consumer prices would go up by 1.9 per cent over the next 12 months. In November last year, the predicted inflation rate was 2.6 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In November, 40 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying durable goods. Fewer households than usual, or 13 per cent of them, were fairly or very certain to buy a car and only five per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Eighteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

A total of 53 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile this November. In all, 63 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 55 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Slightly fewer households than normal, or 11 per cent of them, were planning in November to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	11/2013	10/2014	11/2014	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,9	22,9	-6,5	6,4	0,4	2,6	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,4	14,1	2,3	6,9	4,9	4,7	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,3	25,3	-27,1	1,8	-10,2	-8,1	--
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,3	4,6	0,6	2,6	1,6	1,9
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-2,9	27,6	-51,1	-24,5	-33,7	-29,5	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-0,8	7,6	-18,8	-9,5	-7,5	-10,9	--
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	0,8	11,4	5,8	--
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,0	36,8	-19,6	6,2	5,1	4,2	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,8	42,0	-47,1	5,9	13,8	9,3	-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,8	52,2	10,9	41,5	40,5	43,4	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In November, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 46.6 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2014, November. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, Tara Junes 029 551 3503, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.11.2014)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.11.2014)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.11.2014)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.11.2014)

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Updated 27.11.2014