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Published: 29 November 2010

Consumer confidence unchanged in November

Consumers’ confidence in the economy remained high in November. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 20.8 in November, having been 20.5 in October and 22.9 in September. At the same time, consumer confidence was clearly stronger in November than one year ago and when compared with the long-term average. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,383 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 November.

Consumer confidence indicator

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning own saving possibilities improved in November from the previous month. By contrast, consumers' views on their own and Finland's economy, and on the development of unemployment weakened slightly in November. However, views on Finland's economy were still strong. In addition, consumers regarded saving more worthwhile than before in November.

In November, 47 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while only 13 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. Twelve months earlier the respective proportions were 54 and 17 per cent. In all, 28 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economy would improve and 12 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Altogether 36 per cent of consumers thought in November that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the next year, while 25 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months previously, the corresponding proportions were gloomy 13 and 62 per cent.

In November, 20 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 14 per cent thought it had grown. Twelve months previously, these proportions were still also gloomy at eight and 26 per cent. In November, 43 per cent of employed persons thought the threat of unemployment had remained unchanged and 24 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

This November consumers predicted that consumer prices would go up by 2.8 per cent over the next 12 months. In November last year the predicted inflation rate was 2.0 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.1 per cent.

A total of 67 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile this November. One year earlier, 56 per cent of them thought so. Sixty-seven per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and as many as 82 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 68 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Twelve per cent of households were planning in November to take out a loan within one year.

In November, 49 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Twelve months ago, 58 per cent of consumers thought so. Consumption intentions were moderate in November, but many households had plans to spend money on, for instance, travel, hobby equipment or entertainment electronics during the next six months. Eighteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and eight per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In last year’s November the respective proportions were 15 and eight per cent.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	11/2009	10/2010	11/2010	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	13,2	22,9	-6,5	10,9	20,5	20,8	++
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	9,1	14,1	2,3	7,4	9,4	8,9	+/-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	37,1	52,0	10,9	47,8	47,1	51,7	++
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	5,3	25,3	-27,1	18,2	19,2	17,2	++
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	1,4	27,6	-51,1	-29,8	6,3	5,3	+/-
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,1	4,6	0,6	2,0	3,0	2,8
C1 Favourability of time for buying durable goods (balance)	21,3	41,8	-14,2	35,2	26,8	24,6	+
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,1	36,8	-19,6	8,4	19,8	21,0	+
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	18,5	42,0	-47,1	26,6	26,8	23,4	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100 - the higher the balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor,-- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries will be later released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2010, November. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo (09) 1734 3598, kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Ari Tyrkkö

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Reviews

• 1. Overview of the past (29.11.2010)
• 2. Method of the Consumer Survey (29.11.2010)

Tables

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• Database tables and their variables
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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (29.11.2010)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 9. Intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durable goods, next 12 months vs last 12 months (29.11.2010)
• Appendix figure 11. Intentions to buy, next 12 months (29.11.2010)

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Updated 29.11.2010