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Published: 27 November 2012

Only slight recovery in consumer confidence in November

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 1.0 in November, having been -1.6 in October and 3.4 in September. Confidence in the economy was at the same level as one year ago in November (1.5) but clearly below the long-term average (12.6). The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,428 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 November.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Not one of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator changed substantially in November compared to the previous month or twelve months back. Consumers' expectations concerning the economy in general, i.e. development on unemployment, and the country's economy were still gloomy. Consumers' views about the development of their own economy were clearly more cautious in November than the long-term average. However, consumers did assess the saving possibilities of their household to continue to be good.

Employed consumers felt that their threat of unemployment grew slightly in November. In addition, consumers thought in November that the time was more favourable for saving or raising a loan than for buying durables goods.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In November, 21 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 38 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In October, the respective proportions were 16 and 44 per cent and in last year's November 15 and 47 per cent.

In all, 23 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economy would improve and 16 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Nine per cent of consumers expected in November that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the next 12 months, while 68 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 11 and 60 per cent.

In November, 11 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 23 per cent thought it had grown. In October, the respective proportions were 10 and 19 per cent and twelve months ago 13 and 16 per cent. In November, nearly half (46%) of employed persons thought the threat of unemployment had remained unchanged and one-fifth (20%) felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in November that consumer prices would go up by 3.2 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Saving and taking out a loan

A total of 57 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile this November. Twelve months ago the respective proportion was 65 per cent. Two out of three households (65%) had been able to lay aside some money in November and four out of five (78%) believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 62 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. One year earlier, the respective proportion was less than half of consumers (46%). In November, slightly fewer households than usual, or 12 per cent of them, were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Buying of durable goods

Thirty-nine per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying durable goods in November. One-third (34%) regarded consuming as a bad idea. Despite the moderate consumption intentions, 15 per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and eight per cent a dwelling in the next twelve months. In November, 20 per cent of households were planning to make renovations to their dwelling.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	11/2011	10/2012	11/2012	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12,6	22,9	-6,5	1,5	-1,6	1,0	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,8	14,1	2,3	5,4	4,6	4,6	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,9	25,3	-27,1	-18,9	-17,0	-10,1	--
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	3,2	3,2	3,2
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-0,5	27,6	-51,1	-26,7	-36,4	-34,5	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	0,6	7,6	-18,8	-1,3	-4,4	-6,6	--
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	19,9	41,8	-14,2	1,7	6,1	5,0	--
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,7	36,8	-19,6	19,5	11,3	9,4	+/-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17,5	42,0	-47,1	-3,4	16,0	17,5	+/-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,2	52,2	10,9	46,4	42,6	43,9	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Consumer Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In November, the non-response rate of the Survey was 39.2 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm .

Source: Consumer Survey 2012, November. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 09 1734 3598, Tara Junes 09 1734 3503, kuluttaja.barometri@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.11.2012)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.11.2012)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.11.2012)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.11.2012)

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Updated 27.11.2012