Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2013 > June > Consumers’ confidence in the economy strengthened slightly in June

Published: 27 June 2013

Consumers’ confidence in the economy strengthened slightly in June

In June, the consumer confidence indicator stood at 8.1, while in May it was 5.0 and in April 6.4. In June, confidence in the economy was slightly higher than one year ago (5.8) but below the long-term average (12.4). The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,387 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 3 and 19 June.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, estimates concerning the development of unemployment improved a bit in June compared to May. No significant changes were seen in the other components of the consumer confidence indicator compared to May. Views on households' saving possibilities remained bright. Views on the other components still remained cautious.

In June, the personal threat of unemployment experienced by employed consumers was roughly at the same level as in May. Consumers thought that the time was more favourable for raising a loan than for saving or buying durable goods.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In June, 29 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 28 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In last year’s June, the corresponding proportions were 21 and 40 per cent.

In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in June that their own economy would improve, while 15 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 15 per cent of consumers thought in June that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the year, while 50 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 12 and 59 per cent in May and 16 and 49 per cent one year ago.

In June, 12 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 20 per cent thought it had grown. Both respective proportions were 16 per cent twelve months ago in June. In June, two out of five (41%) employed persons thought the threat of unemployment had remained unchanged and one-quarter (26%) felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in June that consumer prices would go up by 3.0 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In June, one-third (34%) of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. One year previously the corresponding proportion was two-fifths (40%) of consumers. Thirteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In June, 19 per cent of households were planning to make renovations to their dwelling.

Saving and taking out a loan

In June, 53 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. Twelve months ago the respective proportion was 61 per cent. In all, 65 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 80 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In June, 59 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. In June, 12 per cent of households were planning to take out a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	06/2012	05/2013	06/2013	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12,4	22,9	-6,5	5,8	5,0	8,1	-
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,7	14,1	2,3	6,4	5,1	5,1	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,7	25,3	-27,1	-11,1	-3,2	-0,6	-
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	2,9	3,1	3,0
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-1,2	27,6	-51,1	-18,4	-26,3	-19,6	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	0,3	7,6	-18,8	1,1	-6,0	-4,0	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	19,3	41,8	-14,2	8,0	-1,0	-0,8	--
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,5	36,8	-19,6	14,7	-0,6	3,9	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17,3	42,0	-47,1	12,1	18,8	13,9	+/-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,4	52,2	10,9	46,2	44,2	47,4	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In June, the non-response rate of the Survey was 41.0 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2013, June. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tara Junes 09 1734 3503, Pertti Kangassalo 09 1734 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.6.2013)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.6.2013)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.6.2013)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.6.2013)

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Updated 27.6.2013