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Published: 27 September 2013

Consumers’ confidence in the economy nearly unchanged in September

Consumers' confidence in the economy improved slightly in September from August. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 6.3 in September, having been 5.0 in August and in July. Confidence in the economy was slightly stronger than one year ago (3.4) but clearly below the long-term average (12.3). The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,451 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 18 September.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Consumers were in September pessimistic about the future of Finland's economy and particularly about the development of unemployment. However, estimates about unemployment and Finland's economy improved somewhat in September from August. Consumers’ views concerning their own economy were still cautious. In contrast, they considered households' saving possibilities fairly good.

September was not regarded as a favourable time for taking out a loan and particularly for buying durable goods. The personal treat of unemployment experienced by employed persons was slightly higher in September than in August.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In September, 29 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 32 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 19 and 42 per cent.

In all, 22 per cent of consumers believed in September that their own economy would improve and 16 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One year ago, the respective proportions were 23 and 14 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 15 per cent of consumers thought in September that unemployment would decrease over the year, but over one-half of consumers, or 54 per cent of them, believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 12 and 61 per cent in August and 12 and 58 per cent one year ago.

Eleven per cent of employed persons believed in September that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 22 per cent thought it had grown. Forty-three per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 23 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in September that consumer prices would go up by 2.9 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted average inflation rate is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In September, 35 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for making major purchases. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and five per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Seventeen per cent of households were planning to make renovations to their dwelling.

Saving and taking out a loan

In September, 56 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. In all, 65 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 79 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In September, 51 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Twelve months ago the respective proportion was 62 per cent. Eleven per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	09/2012	08/2013	09/2013	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12,3	22,9	-6,5	3,4	5,0	6,3	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,6	14,1	2,3	5,1	5,7	4,4	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,6	25,3	-27,1	-14,2	-7,0	-3,6	-
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,3	4,6	0,6	3,3	2,6	2,9
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-1,5	27,6	-51,1	-25,2	-27,4	-22,0	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	0,1	7,6	-18,8	-2,4	-5,0	-6,6	--
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	19,1	41,8	-14,2	3,7	3,7	-1,3	--
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,4	36,8	-19,6	9,8	7,2	7,8	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17,2	42,0	-47,1	16,7	6,7	4,4	-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,6	52,2	10,9	47,9	48,7	46,3	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In September, the non-response rate of the Survey was 38.3 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2013, September. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tara Junes 09 1734 3503, Pertti Kangassalo 09 1734 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.9.2013)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.9.2013)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.9.2013)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.9.2013)

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Updated 27.9.2013