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Published: 27 May 2014

Consumer confidence recovered from April's downswing

In May, the consumer confidence indicator stood at 8.7, while in April it was 3.7 and in March 8.5. One year ago in May, the consumer confidence indicator received the value 5.0. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 12.1. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,305 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 19 May.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, views concerning Finland’s economy, Finland's unemployment development and households' saving possibilities improved in May compared to April. In contrast, views on one’s own economy remained unchanged. Consumers' views on the development of their own economy and in particular on unemployment were clearly below the average level.

In May, consumers thought that the time was slightly more favourable for raising a loan than for saving or buying durable goods. In May, the personal threat of unemployment experienced by employed consumers was at the same level as in April and as one year ago in May.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In May, 34 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 24 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In April, the respective proportions were 28 and 30 per cent and roughly the same twelve months ago in May (28 and 31 per cent).

In all, 22 per cent of consumers believed in May that their own economy would improve and 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 23 and 15 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether, 18 per cent of consumers thought in May that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 47 per cent of them believed it would increase. In April, the respective proportions were 12 and 58 per cent and roughly the same twelve months ago in May (12 and 59 per cent).

In May, 10 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 23 per cent thought it had grown. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 10 and 21 per cent. In May, 43 per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 24 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in May that consumer prices would go up by 2.6 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In May, 39 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Fourteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Nineteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

A total of 54 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile in May. Twelve months ago, 49 per cent of consumers thought so. In all, 64 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In May, 54 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. In May, 11 per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	05/2013	04/2014	05/2014	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12,1	22,9	-6,5	5,0	3,7	8,7	-
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,5	14,1	2,3	5,1	4,2	4,3	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,5	25,3	-27,1	-3,2	-2,5	3,6	=
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,3	4,6	0,6	3,1	2,4	2,6
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-2,3	27,6	-51,1	-26,3	-25,5	-16,5	-
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-0,5	7,6	-18,8	-6,0	-9,3	-8,2	--
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,6	41,8	-14,2	-1,0	1,9	4,6	--
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,2	36,8	-19,6	-0,6	3,7	6,1	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	17,0	42,0	-47,1	18,8	10,6	8,4	-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,7	52,2	10,9	44,2	38,7	43,5	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In May, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 44.5 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2014, May. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tara Junes 09 1734 3503, Pertti Kangassalo 09 1734 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.5.2014)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.5.2014)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.5.2014)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.5.2014)

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Updated 27.5.2014