Home > Statistics > Consumer Confidence > 2014 > July > Consumer confidence in Finland’s economy improved slightly in July

Published: 28 July 2014

Consumer confidence in Finland’s economy improved slightly in July

Consumers’ general confidence in the economy remained almost unchanged from the previous month in July. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 9.4 in July, while it was 8.7 in June and in May. In last year's July, the confidence indicator received the value 5.0 and its long-term average is 12.1. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,217 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 July.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations concerning Finland’s economy and general unemployment development improved in July from the previous month and the previous year. Views on unemployment remained gloomy, however. By contrast, consumers' view on the economic situation in Finland was for a change brighter than the long-term average. In July, consumers' expectations concerning their own economy and saving possibilities weakened slightly.

In July, consumers thought that the time was more favourable for raising a loan than for saving or buying durable goods. In July, employed consumers still felt personally somewhat more threatened by unemployment than usual.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In July, 35 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 23 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 34 and 25 per cent in June and 26 and 32 per cent one year ago.

In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve while 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. Both one month and one year earlier, the respective proportions were 25 and 14 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 18 per cent of consumers thought in July that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 45 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 16 and 48 per cent in June and 11 and 59 per cent one year ago.

In July, 13 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 24 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-four per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in July that consumer prices would go up by 2.7 per cent over the next 12 months. One month earlier, the predicted inflation rate was 2.4 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In July, 41 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Fifteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Eighteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

Saving was considered worthwhile by 53 per cent of consumers in July. In all, 63 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 75 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In July, 58 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Twelve per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	07/2013	06/2014	07/2014	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12,1	22,9	-6,5	5,0	8,7	9,4	-
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,5	14,1	2,3	6,2	7,5	6,3	-
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,5	25,3	-27,1	-5,0	2,8	5,3	=
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,3	4,6	0,6	2,9	2,4	2,7
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-2,4	27,6	-51,1	-26,5	-18,2	-15,0	-
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-0,6	7,6	-18,8	-4,9	-7,3	-6,0	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,4	41,8	-14,2	4,1	7,5	5,0	--
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,2	36,8	-19,6	2,7	3,0	4,3	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,9	42,0	-47,1	11,7	11,6	11,7	-
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,8	52,2	10,9	45,3	42,6	40,8	=

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In July, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 48.2 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2014, July. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, Tara Junes 029 551 3503, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (28.7.2014)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (28.7.2014)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (28.7.2014)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (28.7.2014)

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Updated 28.7.2014