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Published: 27 October 2014

Consumers’ confidence in the economy unchanged in October

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 0.4 in October, having been -0.7 in September and 2.2 in August. One year ago the consumer confidence indicator received the value 3.8. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 11.9. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,266 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 October.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations of Finland’s economic situation improved slightly from September. No essential changes occurred in the other components of the consumer confidence indicator. Views on households' saving possibilities remained moderate. By contrast, views on Finland’s economy were still gloomy and estimates on one’s own financial situation were cautious.

Consumers regarded the time more favourable for raising a loan than for buying durable goods or saving in October. The personal threat of unemployment experienced by employed persons was at the same level in October as in September and one year ago in October.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In October, 21 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 35 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In September, the respective proportions were 17 and 42 per cent and twelve months ago 30 and 31 per cent.

In October, 22 per cent of consumers believed that their own economy would improve and 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One year ago, the respective proportions were 25 and 14 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 9 per cent of consumers thought in October that unemployment would decrease in Finland over the year, while 68 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 12 and 60 per cent.

In October, 11 per cent of employed persons believed that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, whereas 24 per cent thought it had grown. Forty-four per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 21 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in October that consumer prices would go up by 1.6 per cent over the next 12 months. In October last year, the predicted inflation rate was 2.7 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In October, 43 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Seventeen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and 7 per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Eighteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

In all, 54 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile in October. In all, 63 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 74 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In October, 59 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. This October, 12 per cent of households were planning to take out a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	10/2013	09/2014	10/2014	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,9	22,9	-6,5	3,8	-0,7	0,4	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,5	14,1	2,3	6,2	3,6	4,9	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,3	25,3	-27,1	-2,5	-15,8	-10,2	--
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,3	4,6	0,6	2,7	2,2	1,6
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-2,8	27,6	-51,1	-28,0	-32,6	-33,7	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-0,7	7,6	-18,8	-9,4	-9,2	-7,5	--
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,3	41,8	-14,2	2,4	3,3	11,4	-
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	11,1	36,8	-19,6	8,0	2,3	5,1	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,8	42,0	-47,1	7,9	6,1	13,8	=
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	38,8	52,2	10,9	39,4	42,1	40,5	=

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In October, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 46.1 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2014, October. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tara Junes 029 551 3503, Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.10.2014)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.10.2014)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.10.2014)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.10.2014)

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Updated 27.10.2014