Published: 28 December 2015
Consumers’ views subdued in December
Consumers’ confidence in the economy weakened slightly in December. The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 2.4 in December whereas in November it was 4.7 and in October 1.3. Last year in December, the CCI received the value 4.4. The long-term average for the CCI is 11.7. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,220 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 16 December.
Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)
Of the four components of the CCI, expectations of one’s own and, in particular, Finland’s economy decreased in December compared with November and twelve months back. Consumers’ views of unemployment development and their saving possibilities remained unchanged. Expectations concerning saving possibilities were bright in December, other expectations were subdued or gloomy.
In December, consumers regarded the time fairly favourable for taking out a loan but not for buying durable goods and especially not for saving. In December, employed consumers felt personally more threatened by unemployment than usual, as was the case already in November and one year ago.
Consumers' own and Finland's economy
In December, 24 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve during the next 12 months, while 38 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In November, the respective proportions were still 30 and 29 per cent and twelve months ago in December 26 and 32 per cent.
In all, 23 per cent of consumers believed in December that their own economy would improve and 16 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. The corresponding proportions were 23 and 13 per cent in November and 23 and 14 per cent one year ago.
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time
Unemployment and inflation
Only ten per cent of consumers thought in December that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 60 per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve per cent of employed persons reckoned in December that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 20 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-two per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.
Consumers predicted in December that consumer prices would go up by 1.5 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.
Buying of durable goods
In December, 46 per cent of consumers thought that the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and six per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Nineteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.
Saving and taking out a loan
In December, 53 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for saving. In all, 67 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 79 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.
In December, 63 per cent of consumers regarded the time favourable for raising a loan. Thirteen per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year. For 38 per cent of households planning to buy a dwelling, a bank loan was the main financing method in December and for 33 per cent the second most important. The respective proportions for buying a car were 11 and 13 per cent.
Consumer confidence by major region and population group
In December, Greater Helsinki and Northern Finland had a brighter view of the economy than the rest of the country. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were clearly most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.
Consumers' views of the economy
| Average 10/1995- | Max. 10/1995- | Min. 10/1995- | 12/2014 | 11/2015 | 12/2015 | Outlook | |
| A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4 | 11,7 | 22,9 | -6,5 | 4,4 | 4,7 | 2,4 | -- |
| B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance) | 8,3 | 14,1 | 2,3 | 5,5 | 5,7 | 4,2 | -- |
| B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance) | 3,0 | 25,3 | -27,1 | -4,6 | -1,9 | -10,4 | -- |
| B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent) | 2,2 | 4,6 | 0,6 | 2,0 | 1,3 | 1,5 | |
| B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance) | -3,9 | 27,6 | -51,1 | -27,6 | -30,5 | -29,7 | -- |
| B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance) | -1,3 | 7,6 | -18,8 | -7,5 | -5,9 | -5,2 | - |
| C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance) | 18,1 | 41,8 | -14,2 | 12,1 | 15,0 | 16,8 | = |
| C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance) | 10,7 | 36,8 | -19,6 | 2,4 | 8,0 | 4,5 | - |
| C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance) | 16,9 | 42,0 | -47,1 | 11,8 | 19,6 | 20,1 | = |
| D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance) | 39,2 | 52,2 | 10,9 | 44,5 | 45,4 | 45,5 | + |
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.
Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.
EU results
The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2015, December. Statistics Finland
Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi
Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma
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- 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (28.12.2015)
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Appendix tables
- Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (28.12.2015)
- Figures
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- Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 3. Own economy (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 5. Inflation (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (28.12.2015)
- Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (28.12.2015)
Updated 28.12.2015
Official Statistics of Finland (OSF):
Consumer Confidence [e-publication].
ISSN=2669-8889. December 2015. Helsinki: Statistics Finland [referred: 18.12.2024].
Access method: http://www.stat.fi/til/kbar/2015/12/kbar_2015_12_2015-12-28_tie_001_en.html