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Review

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In October, 10 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 48 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The respective proportions in September were 10 and 47 per cent.

In October, 26 per cent of consumers believed that their own economy would improve and 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. The respective proportions in September were 27 and 13 per cent. Twenty-seven per cent of consumers estimated that their economy was now better than a year ago and 18 per cent felt that it was worse in October. The proportions were 28 and 15 per cent one month earlier.

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether, 19 per cent of consumers thought in October that unemployment would decrease over the year, while already 40 per cent of them believed it would increase. The proportions in September were 18 and 38 per cent.

In October, 48 per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all. Seven per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 18 per cent thought it had grown.

Consumers predicted in October that consumer prices would go up by 2.7 per cent over the next 12 months. In September the predicted inflation rate was 2.5 per cent, and its average since January 2018 is 2.6 per cent.

Saving and taking out a loan

In October, 61 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for saving. Sixty-two per cent of consumers had been able to lay aside some money and 76 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In October, 65 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for taking out a loan. One month earlier the proportion was 70 per cent. In October, 20 per cent of consumers considered raising a loan within one year.

Buying of durable goods

Twenty-eight per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying durable goods in October. Thirteen per cent of consumers planned on increasing and 34 per cent on reducing their spending on durable goods over the next 12 months. The respective proportions in September were 15 and 31 per cent.

In October, more consumers than usual, or 18 per cent, were either definitely or possibly going to buy a car during the next 12 months. Sixteen per cent of consumers considered buying a dwelling. Twenty per cent of consumers were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Method of the Consumer Confidence Survey

The Consumer Confidence Survey measures Finnish consumers’ confidence in the economy, that is, views and expectations about the development of their own and Finland’s general economic situation. The survey also examines consumers' intentions of making major purchases, saving and raising loans. The survey is carried out with a mixed-mode data collection method, i.e. with a web questionnaire and by telephone interviews (CATI). For the Consumer Confidence Survey, answers are given by means of answer options (qualitative survey).

The former name of the Consumer Confidence Survey was the Consumer Survey. Earlier the survey was carried out by means of telephone interviews only. The first interviews were conducted in November 1987. Until 1991, the survey was carried out twice a year, in May and November. In 1992, the survey times increased to four: the survey months were February, May, August and November. Since October 1995, the consumer confidence data have been collected monthly on assignment from and partial financing of the European Commission .

Sampling and data collection

The population of the Consumer Confidence Survey comprises 4.0 million persons aged 18 to 74 in Finland. The panel design is used in the survey: everybody answers twice within six months. Each month, the target is a random sample of about 2,200 persons, of whom one half are included in the first round and one half in the second round. The target area of the survey is the whole country and the respondents represent the population in Finland, according to age, gender, area of residence and native language. The data collection period for the survey is the first two or three weeks of the month.

In October 2019, in all, 1,008 responses were gained. The non-response rate of the survey was 53.5 per cent. This includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted. Possible over-coverage (dead, inmates of institutions, moved abroad, etc.) is also included in non-response here.

Weighting

The response data of the Consumer Confidence Survey are expanded to the whole population with weighting coefficients. Weighting corrects the effects of non-response and improves the statistical accuracy of the data. The weights are established by using a calibration method (Calmar) and the probability of each observation to be included in the sample. The figures and series presented are not seasonally adjusted.

Source: Consumer Confidence 2019, October. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, Tuomas Parikka 029 551 3276, consumer.confidence@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Updated 28.10.2019