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1. Examination of answer distributions

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In February, 14 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 37 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The respective proportions in January were 13 and 38 per cent.

In all, 25 per cent of consumers believed in February that their own economy would improve while 14 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. The respective proportions in January were 28 and 12 per cent. Twenty-four per cent of consumers estimated that their economy was now better than a year ago and 19 per cent felt that it was worse in February. One month earlier, the respective proportions were 25 and 16 per cent.

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 26 per cent of consumers thought in February that general unemployment would decrease over the year, while 33 per cent of them believed it would increase. The respective proportions in January were 19 and 37 per cent.

In February, 45 per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all. Six per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 16 per cent thought it had grown.

Consumers predicted in February that consumer prices would go up by 2.7 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 3.0 per cent.

Saving and taking out a loan

In February, 66 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for saving. Sixty per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 77 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In February, 68 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for taking out a loan. Slightly more consumers than usual, or 20 per cent of them, were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Buying of durable goods

Thirty per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying durable goods in February. Fifteen per cent of consumers planned on increasing and 33 per cent on reducing their spending on durable goods over the next 12 months.

In February, 14 per cent of consumers were either definitely or possibly going to buy a car during the next 12 months. Similarly, 14 per cent considered buying a dwelling. Nineteen per cent of consumers were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Method of the Consumer Confidence Survey

The Consumer Confidence Survey measures Finnish consumers’ confidence in the economy, that is, views and expectations about the development of their own and Finland’s general economic situation. The survey also examines consumers' intentions of making major purchases, saving and raising loans. The survey is carried out with a mixed-mode data collection method, i.e. with a web questionnaire and by telephone interviews (CATI). For the Consumer Confidence Survey, answers are given by means of answer options (qualitative survey).

The former name of the Consumer Confidence Survey was the Consumer Survey. Earlier the survey was carried out by means of telephone interviews only. The first interviews were conducted in November 1987. Until 1991, the survey was carried out twice a year, in May and November. In 1992, the survey times increased to four: the survey months were February, May, August and November. Since October 1995, the consumer confidence data have been collected monthly on assignment from and partial financing of the European Commission .

Sampling and data collection

The population of the Consumer Confidence Survey comprises 4.0 million persons aged 18 to 74 in Finland. The rotating panel design is used in the survey: everybody answers twice within six months. Each month, the target is a random sample of about 2,200 persons, of whom one half are included in the first round and one half in the second round. The target area of the survey is the whole country and the respondents represent the population in Finland, according to age, gender, area of residence and native language. The data collection period for the survey is the first two or three weeks of the month.

In February 2020, in all, 1,041 responses were gained. The non-response rate of the survey was 52.3 per cent. This includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted. Possible over-coverage (dead, inmates of institutions, moved abroad, etc.) is also included in non-response here.

Weighting

The response data of the Consumer Confidence Survey are expanded to the whole population with weighting coefficients. Weighting corrects the effects of non-response and improves the statistical accuracy of the data. The weights are established by using a calibration method (Calmar) and the probability of each observation to be included in the sample. The figures and series presented are not seasonally adjusted.

Source: Consumer Confidence 2020, February. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tuomas Parikka 029 551 3276, Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.confidence@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Updated 27.2.2020