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Published: 14 November 2014

Output of the national economy decreased in September 2014

Seasonally adjusted output decreased by 0.3 per cent in September from the month before. Adjusted for working days, output decreased by 1.3 per cent year-on-year. The working day correction affected the growth figures of September considerably as, according to the original series, output of the national economy grew by 1.7 per cent from one year ago in September. According to revised data, working day adjusted output decreased in August by 0.7 per cent from August 2013 (previously -0.6%).

Volume of total output 2005 to 2014, trend and seasonally adjusted series

The series of the Trend Indicator of Output are seasonally adjusted with the Tramo/Seats method. The latest observations of the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation (seasonally adjusted and trend series) become revised with new observations in seasonal adjustment methods. Revisions especially at turning points of economic trends may be significant, which should be taken into consideration when using seasonally adjusted and trend data.

Working day adjusted change of total output from previous year’s corresponding month, %

Primary production went up by two per cent from September 2013. By contrast, secondary production decreased by close on four per cent and services by just under one-half of a per cent.

Secondary production includes manufacturing and construction. Services comprise trade, hotel and restaurant activities, transport and business activities, as well as real estate, renting and research services, financial intermediation and insurance, and public services. Primary production refers to agriculture, forestry and fishing.

Estimated development of GDP and employment in the third quarter of 2014

Seasonally adjusted GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2 per cent from the previous quarter. According to the series adjusted for working days, GDP went up by 0.0 per cent from the corresponding quarter of the year before. In the monthly time series, the effect of the working day adjustment is larger than in the quarterly time series of GDP. In the third quarter of 2014, this is visible in that the working day and seasonally adjusted changes of the monthly time series indicate a more negative development in the national economy than the corresponding quarterly data. It is estimated that the number of the employed has contracted by 0.1 per cent and hours worked increased by 1.6 per cent from the third quarter of 2013.

The data are based on preliminary data of the Trend Indicator of Output. The next quarterly national accounts with more detailed data will be published on 5 December 2014.

Flash estimate, seasonally adjusted, at reference year 2010 prices

Intermediate consumption as well as taxes and subsidies on products are not estimated in the compilation of the quarterly flash estimate, but quarterly GDP is carried forward with a change based on the data of the Trend Indicator of Output.

Source: Trend Indicator of Output 2014 September, Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Samu Hakala 029 551 3756, Pasi Koikkalainen 029 551 3332, kansantalous.suhdanteet@stat.fi

Director in charge: Leena Storgårds

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Updated 14.11.2014