1 November 2001
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
Consumers still confident about their own economy
The consumer confidence indicator expressing consumer views on the economy was 5.3 in October, which is approximately the same as in September. One year ago consumers' confidence in the economy was clearly stronger, however. In October consumers still had confidence in their own economy and saving possibilities. In addition, the time was considered favourable for buying consumer durables and taking out a loan. In contrast, views on Finland's economy and unemployment were dismal. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,670 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 8 and 24 October.
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Consumer views on economic and financial conditions in Finland in October 2001 |
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October 2001 balance |
September 2001 balance |
October 2000 balance |
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Consumer confidence indicator (CCI was revised, see below) |
5.3 |
4.4 |
15.3 |
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Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
9.6 |
8.0 |
9.4 |
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Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
38.7 |
35.4 |
33.3 |
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General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
-11.4 |
-12.7 |
1.7 |
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Unemployment in 12 months' time |
15.6 |
13.1 |
-16.6 |
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Price trend over the next 12 months, % |
2.6 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
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Financial situation of households at present |
26.8 |
25.0 |
25.4 |
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Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
15.7 |
12.6 |
6.9 |
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Favourable time to save at present |
16.7 |
20.2 |
10.7 |
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Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
19.3 |
10.8 |
-11.2 |
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The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The positive balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to go up. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, households' saving possibilities and unemployment (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. |
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In October 26 per cent of consumers estimated that their own economic situation would improve in the next 12 months. The proportion was more or less the same as in September and in last year's October. Only 9 per cent of consumers were concerned that their own economic situation would worsen. Nineteen per cent of consumers believed Finland's economic situation would improve. Of consumers, 40 per cent thought that the country's economic situation would deteriorate further.
In October 48 per cent of consumers believed that unemployment will start to increase in the next 12 months. The corresponding proportion was still 23 per cent in July and 14 per cent one year ago. Consumers estimated that inflation would be 2.6 per cent in October 2002.
In October 43 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying consumer durables. Intentions to travel abroad had fallen from September, but as many were planning to take a trip as in last year's autumn, i.e. 37 per cent of households. Intentions to buy a car have increased, since in October 10 per cent of households planned to buy a car in the next six months. Slightly more than before, i.e. 7 per cent of households were also thinking of buying a dwelling.
In October 64 per cent of consumers thought the time favourable for taking out a loan. This proportion was 58 per cent in September and 38 per cent one year ago. Of households, 15 per cent planned to raise a loan in the next 12 months. Sixty-three per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile and 75 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months. Bank account saving has increased its popularity in the last few months.
The revision of the consumer confidence indicator was caused by the change in the calculation method used by the European Commission. The survey is carried out in its main parts similarly in all EU Member States except Luxembourg.
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Components of the consumer confidence indicator, old and revised calculation method |
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Old confidence indicator |
Revised confidence indicator |
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Own economic situation at present compared to 12 months ago |
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
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Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
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General economic situation in Finland at present compared to 12 months ago |
Households' saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
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General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
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Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
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More information about the change in the calculation method is
available on the Commission Internet site at:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2001, October. Statistics Finland