30 January 2002
Inquiries: Mr Arto Kokkinen +358 9 1734
3355, arto.kokkinen@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP fell by 0.7 per cent in November from one year ago
The volume of GDP was 0.7 per cent smaller in November 2001 than in November 2000. Output fell in three of the six main industries, i.e. primary production, manufacturing and construction, included in the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland. The industries of trade, public services and other services, and transport grew. GDP increased in all by one per cent between January and November 2001 compared to the corresponding months the year before. Adjusted for seasonal variation, GDP grew slightly in November compared to October.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Industrial output went down by nearly 5 per cent in November 2001 compared to November 2000. Output in the manufacture of electrical products increased by 5 per cent, but in the wood and paper industry output fell by 13 per cent. The chemical industry declined by 6 per cent and other manufacturing by 7 per cent.
Output in agriculture and forestry fell by almost 8 per cent in November because fellings decreased by 14 per cent. Construction contracted by 2 per cent.
Output in trade grew by nearly one per cent from November 2000. Within trade, wholesale trade fell by almost one per cent but retail trade increased by 5 per cent. Car sales slowed down by 4 per cent.
Output in other services and public services rose by close on 3 per cent. Output in the transport industry went up by one per cent. Road transport and post and telecommunications increased, but the volume of rail transport fell.
Monthly Indicator of GDP, trend cycle series
According to the seasonally adjusted trend cycle series, GDP rose slightly in November compared to October. From February to June 2001, GDP fell in comparison to the previous month. In July the fall of GDP halted. In August, September, October and November, GDP grew again compared to the previous month.
The volume of GDP was 40 per cent higher in November last year than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 19 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom before the recession. Between 1995 and November 2000, GDP rose by 29 per cent. After the small slump last spring, GDP appears to have reached that same level now in November 2001.
Economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. The original series of GDP is adjusted for the seasonal variation component as well as for the random variation component. What remains is the trend cycle component describing more stable changes. Seasonal variation and random variation components are adjusted with X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that seasonally adjusted series will be revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with some caution because especially at turning points new observations can change seasonally adjusted figures significantly.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP (total output) is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2001, November. Statistics Finland