29 April 2002
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Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP fell in February from the previous month
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP fell in February by 0.2 per cent from January. The decrease of GDP halted during last year's summer and early autumn. In the last reference months GDP has fallen again.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series
However, the volume of GDP was 37 per cent higher in February 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 16 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom before the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend cycle component describing more stable changes is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation will get revised along with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went down by 1.9 per cent from last year's February
In February 2002, GDP fell by 1.9 per cent from the previous year's February. Compared to February 2001, output declined in three of the six main industries, i.e. manufacturing, construction and transport. Differing from the previous months, trade and primary production grew again. Output in public services and other services also increased.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Output in agriculture and forestry increased by 1 per cent in February. Reduction of fellings halted. Milk production grew by 2 per cent and meat production by 3 per cent compared to February last year.
Industrial output as calculated per working day declined by close on 8 per cent in February from the year before. Calculated per working day, output in the manufacture of electrical products decreased by 16 per cent and in energy supply and the chemical industry by 7 per cent. The slowing of the wood and paper industry stopped.
Output in trade went up again after January. In the entire trade industry, output grew by nearly 2 per cent from February 2001. Sale volumes of retail trade improved by 3 per cent and those of wholesale trade by 1 per cent. Sales of motor vehicles picked up by good 1 per cent after having slowed down for several months.
Output in transport went down by 1 per cent because rail transport decreased by 8 per cent. The volume of road transport was unchanged from last year's February. Post and telecommunications increased.
Output in other services and public services rose by nearly 2 per cent in February. Construction contracted by 2 per cent from February 2001.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different sectors of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, February. Statistics Finland