30 April 2002
Inquiries: Mr Pellervo Marja-aho +358 9 1734
3349, pellervo.marja-aho@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
Consumers believe unemployment will fall
Consumers' confidence in the economy has gained strength. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 15.7 in April, having been 13.3 in March and 11.6 in April 2001. Consumers' views on their own and on Finland's economy were unchanged compared to March. For the first time since last July more consumers believed unemployment would fall rather than rise. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,579 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 18 April.
Consumer views on economic and financial conditions in Finland in April 2002
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April 2002 balance |
March 2002 balance |
April 2001 balance |
Average 10/1995- |
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|
Consumer confidence indicator |
15.7 |
13.3 |
11.6 |
14.4 |
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|
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
11.6 |
11.5 |
10.2 |
8.2 |
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|
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
40.7 |
40.1 |
39.9 |
25.7 |
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|
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
7.7 |
7.8 |
-8.1 |
9.3 |
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|
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
-2.6 |
6.0 |
-4.2 |
-14.4 |
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|
Price trend over the next 12 months, % |
2.0 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
1.9 |
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|
Financial situation of household at present |
24.8 |
25.8 |
25.6 |
22.0 |
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|
Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
1.2 |
0.3 |
13.8 |
18.8 |
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|
Favourable time to save at present |
15.5 |
12.2 |
13.7 |
1.0 |
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|
Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
22.7 |
22.6 |
8.5 |
19.1 |
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|
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The negative balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to go down. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, household's saving possibilities and unemployment (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. |
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In April, 33 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 17 per cent thought it would deteriorate. One year ago, the respective proportions were 17 and 32 per cent. As many as last year, or 27 per cent of consumers, believed in April that their own economic situation would improve while only 8 per cent feared it would worsen.
In April, 25 per cent of consumers estimated that unemployment would rise in the next 12 months, whereas more, or 32 per cent, of consumers were confident unemployment would fall in the next 12 months. The respective proportions in March were 35 and 24 per cent and, at their most pessimistic in November last year, 54 and 18 per cent. Eight per cent of employed persons reckoned they might personally become unemployed within the next 12 months. Consumers predicted that the rate of inflation in April 2003 would be 2 per cent.
In April, 67 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for raising a loan and 14 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. In March, 17 per cent of households thought about raising a loan. In April, 62 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile and 73 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months.
In April, 33 per cent of consumers, or 9 percentage points fewer than a year ago, thought the time was favourable for buying consumer durables. Nevertheless, consumers still had plenty of spending intentions. Ten per cent of households intended to purchase a car in the next six months and 6 per cent thought of buying a dwelling in the next 12 months.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-4/2002
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in twelve months' time 10/1995-4/2002
Consumer confidence indicator in EU Member States, March
2002
Deviation of indicator from average 10/1995-*
Source: Consumer Survey 2002, April. Statistics Finland