27 June 2002
Inquiries: Mr Arto Kokkinen +358 9 1734 3355
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP grew in April
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP increased by 0.5 per cent in April compared to March. The upturn is very big since the monthly volume of GDP has last been on a corresponding level in March 2001.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The volume of GDP was 39 per cent higher in April 2002 than in April 1993 at the depth of the recession and 18 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom before the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation will get revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went up by 4.4 per cent from last year's April
In April 2002, GDP rose by 4.4 per cent compared to the previous year's April. Output grew in all of the six main industries, i.e. primary production, manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, and public services and other services.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Output in agriculture and forestry grew by 11 per cent in April. Both meat production and fellings increased by 15 per cent. Milk production went up by 1 per cent from April last year.
Industrial output as calculated per working day increased by 7 per cent in April from the year before. The manufacture of electrical products went up by 28 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 3 per cent. Energy supply declined by 5 per cent and the chemical industry by 2 per cent.
Sale volumes of trade rose by 7 per cent from April 2001. Sales of motor vehicles picked up by 14 per cent. Wholesale trade grew by 8 per cent, retail trade by 2 per cent.
Output in transport accelerated by 5 per cent because the volume of road transport grew by 7 per cent. Post and telecommunications also increased. Rail transport slowed by 1 per cent.
Construction strengthened by 1 per cent from April 2001. Output in other services and public services also rose by 1 per cent.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, April. Statistics Finland