29 August 2002
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Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP continued to grow in June
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP increased by 0.5 per cent in June compared to May. The volume of GDP has been growing every month since February.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The volume of GDP was 41 per cent higher in June 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 20 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went up by 2.7 per cent from last year's June
In June 2002, GDP rose by 2.7 per cent compared to the previous year's June. Output grew in four of the six main industries, i.e. primary production, manufacturing, trade, and public services and other services. Transport and construction slowed down.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Output in agriculture and forestry grew by nearly 1 per cent from June 2001. Fellings increased by 2 per cent. Milk production decreased by 1 per cent, while meat production was on the level with last year's June.
Industrial output as calculated per working day grew by over 5 per cent. The manufacture of electrical products went up by as much as 33 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 7 per cent and in the chemical industry by 3 per cent. Energy supply declined by 18 per cent.
Sale volumes of trade rose by close on 4 per cent from last year's June. Sales of motor vehicles still grew briskly in June, by 15 per cent. Retail trade went up by 4 per cent and wholesale trade went down by 1 per cent.
Transport and construction decreased by close on 1 per cent from June 2001. Output in other services and public services rose by a good 1 per cent.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, June. Statistics Finland