30 August 2002
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
Consumers' confidence in economy weakened in August
Consumers' views on Finland's economy and on the development of unemployment grew distinctly gloomier in August. Their faith in their own economy also weakened somewhat. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 10.4 in August, having still been 13.3 in July and over 15 in spring. Nevertheless, consumers' confidence in the economy continues to be stronger than twelve months ago. Conversely, consumers regarded their financial situation and saving possibilities as excellent in August. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,612 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 August.
Consumer views on economic and financial conditions in Finland in August 2002
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August 2002 balance |
July 2002 balance |
August 2001 balance |
Average 10/95-8/02 |
|||||
|
Consumer confidence indicator |
10.4 |
13.3 |
6.5 |
14.4 |
||||
|
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
8.5 |
9.9 |
9.4 |
8.3 |
||||
|
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
40.7 |
41.4 |
38.9 |
26.5 |
||||
|
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
-1.1 |
4.9 |
-14.0 |
9.1 |
||||
|
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
6.6 |
3.2 |
8.4 |
-13.6 |
||||
|
Price trend over the next 12 months, % |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
||||
|
Financial situation of household at present |
29.3 |
27.4 |
27.0 |
22.3 |
||||
|
Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
4.4 |
8.9 |
11.9 |
18.1 |
||||
|
Favourable time to save at present |
16.9 |
19.2 |
18.7 |
1.9 |
||||
|
Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
20.6 |
24.4 |
8.5 |
19.3 |
||||
|
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The positive balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to rise. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, household's saving possibilities and unemployment (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. |
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In August, 24 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while slightly more, or 25 per cent, thought it would worsen. In July, the respective proportions were 28 and 18 per cent. In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in August that their own economic situation would improve. This is a few percentage points below the usual figure for the last few months, but the proportion of consumers fearing that their own economic situation would deteriorate remained unchanged at only 9 per cent.
The pessimism with which consumers began to view the employment situation in July continued in August. Altogether 35 per cent of respondents envisaged that unemployment would rise, whereas only 23 per cent still believed it would fall in the next 12 months. As in July, one employed person out of ten reckoned they were personally likely to become unemployed within the next 12 months. Consumers predicted that the rate of inflation in August 2003 would be 1.7 per cent.
No major changes took place in consumers' views about saving or raising a loan in August. A total of 66 per cent of consumers thought in August that the time was favourable for raising a loan and 14 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. Saving was considered worthwhile by 63 per cent of consumers and 74 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months.
In August, 35 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. One month earlier the corresponding proportion was 37 per cent. Households continued to have plenty of spending plans. Ten per cent of them intended to purchase a car in the next six months and 7 per cent thought of buying a dwelling in the next 12 months. There was still no increase in the number of plans to purchase a digital TV adaptor.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-8/2002
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in twelve months' time 10/1995-8/2002
Consumer confidence indicator in EU Member States, July
2002
Deviation of indicator from country's average
10/1995-7/2002*
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2002, August. Statistics Finland