27 September 2002
Inquiries: Mr Arto Kokkinen +358 9 1734 3355
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
GDP grew in July
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP increased by 0.4 per cent in July compared to June. Output volumes fell from the previous month in the first half and at the end of last year. From the first part of 2002, GDP has grown monthly compared to the level of the latter part of 2001.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The volume of GDP was 42 per cent higher in July 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 21 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went up by 3.1 per cent from last year's July
In July 2002, GDP rose by 3.1 per cent compared to the previous year's July. Output grew in four of the six main industries, i.e. manufacturing, trade, transport, and public services and other services. In contrast, primary production and construction fell.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Industrial output as calculated per working day grew by 5 per cent. The manufacture of electrical equipment went up by 25 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 8 per cent and in the chemical industry by 4 per cent. Energy supply declined by 8 per cent.
Sale volumes of trade rose by close on 4 per cent from last year's July. Sales of motor vehicles grew by 10 per cent in July, wholesale trade by 4 per cent and retail trade by 1 per cent.
Output in agriculture and forestry fell by 3 per cent from July 2001. Fellings slowed by 10 per cent and milk production decreased by 1 per cent. Meat production grew by 2 per cent.
Transport accelerated by 6 per cent. Output in other services and public services rose by a good 1 per cent. Construction decreased by nearly 1 per cent from July 2001.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, July. Statistics Finland