30 September 2002
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Markku Suur-Kujala
Consumers' confidence in economy unchanged
Consumers' belief in economy did not weaken any further in September. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 10.6 in September, or roughly unchanged from August. Compared to September 2001, consumers' faith in the economy was distinctly stronger. Nevertheless, consumers' views on Finland's economy and on the development of unemployment were still cautious. Conversely, consumers continued to have strong faith in their own economy and regarded the time favourable for raising a loan in September. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,613 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 19 September.
Consumer views on economic and financial conditions in Finland in September 2002
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September 2002 balance |
August 2002 balance |
September 2001 balance |
Average 10/95-9/02 |
|||||
|
Consumer confidence indicator |
10.6 |
10.4 |
4.4 |
14.3 |
||||
|
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
10.8 |
8.5 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
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|
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
37.1 |
40.7 |
35.4 |
26.6 |
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|
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
1.6 |
-1.1 |
-12.7 |
9.0 |
||||
|
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
6.9 |
6.6 |
13.1 |
-13.4 |
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|
Price trend over the next 12 months, % |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
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|
Financial situation of household at present |
26.7 |
29.3 |
25.0 |
22.3 |
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|
Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
3.8 |
4.4 |
12.6 |
17.9 |
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|
Favourable time to save at present |
16.7 |
16.9 |
20.2 |
2.0 |
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|
Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
24.4 |
20.6 |
10.8 |
19.4 |
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|
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The positive balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to rise. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, household's saving possibilities and unemployment (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. |
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In September, 26 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 22 per cent thought it would worsen. In August, the respective proportions were 24 and 25 per cent and 12 months ago 17 and 40 per cent. In all, 27 per cent of consumers believed in September that their own economic situation would improve. This is a couple of percentage points up on the previous corresponding figure, and only 8 per cent of consumers feared in September that their own economic situation would deteriorate.
Consumers' pessimistic views about unemployment continued in September. Altogether 36 per cent of consumers feared that unemployment would rise, whereas only 24 per cent of them believed it would fall in the next 12 months. Approximately one employed person out of ten reckoned they were personally likely to become unemployed within the next 12 months. Consumers predicted that the rate of inflation in September 2003 would be 1.7 per cent.
A total of 68 per cent of consumers thought in September that the time was favourable for raising a loan and 16 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. In August the respective proportions were 66 and 14 per cent and twelve months ago 58 and 14 per cent. Saving was considered worthwhile by 63 per cent of consumers and 71 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months.
In September, 35 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. In September 2001, the corresponding proportion was 42 per cent. Households continued to have plenty of spending plans. Eight per cent of them intended to purchase a car in the next six months and 7 per cent thought of buying a dwelling in the next 12 months.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-9/2002
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in twelve months' time 10/1995-9/2002
Source: Consumer Survey 2002, September. Statistics Finland