GDP grew in August

According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP increased by 0.2 per cent in August compared to July. Since the first part of 2002, GDP has grown monthly in comparison to the level of the latter part of 2001.

Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series

The volume of GDP was 42 per cent higher in August 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 21 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.

The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.

It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with care because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.

GDP went up by 0.9 per cent from last year's August

In August 2002, GDP increased by 0.9 per cent compared to the previous year's August. Output grew in four of the six main industries, i.e. manufacturing, trade, transport, and public services and other services. In contrast, primary production and construction contracted.

Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month

Industrial output as calculated per working day grew by 1 per cent. The manufacture of electrical equipment went up by 3 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 7 per cent and in the chemical industry by 2 per cent. The amount of energy supply was on the same level as in August 2001.

Sale volumes of trade rose by nearly 1 per cent from last year's August. Sales of motor vehicles grew by 10 per cent and retail trade by 4 per cent in August. Wholesale trade fell by over 4 per cent.

Output in agriculture and forestry went down by 2 per cent from August 2001. Fellings slowed by 5 per cent and milk production decreased by 2 per cent. Meat production grew by 1 per cent and crop growing by close on 3 per cent.

Transport accelerated by 1 per cent. Output in other services and public services rose by a good 1 per cent. Construction decreased by 1 per cent from August 2001.

The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.

Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, August. Statistics Finland