31 October 2002
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö
Consumers' confidence in the economy weakened in October
Consumers' estimates and expectations concerning the economy have grown more dismal. The consumer confidence indicator was 7.8 in October, which is three units lower than in September. The consumer confidence indicator sank at the same ever more clearly below its long-term average. Consumers' views on the development of unemployment, in particular, were very pessimistic in October. In addition, their belief in their own economic situation had weakened a little. Consumers still regarded their financial situation good and considered the time favourable for purchasing consumer durables and taking out a loan. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,636 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 18 October.
Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in October 2002
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|
October 2002 balance |
September 2002 balance |
October 2001 balance |
Average 10/95-10/02 |
|||||
|
Consumer confidence indicator |
7.8 |
10.6 |
5.3 |
14.2 |
||||
|
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
8.3 |
10.8 |
9.6 |
8.3 |
||||
|
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
34.7 |
37.1 |
38.7 |
26.7 |
||||
|
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
1.7 |
1.6 |
-11.4 |
8.9 |
||||
|
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
13.4 |
6.9 |
15.6 |
-13.1 |
||||
|
Price trend over the next 12 months. % |
1.6 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
||||
|
Financial situation of household at present |
26.1 |
26.7 |
26.8 |
22.4 |
||||
|
Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
7.9 |
3.8 |
15.7 |
17.8 |
||||
|
Favourable time to save at present |
13.9 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
2.2 |
||||
|
Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
25.6 |
24.4 |
19.3 |
19.4 |
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|
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The positive balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to go up. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, household's saving possibilities and number of unemployed (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. |
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In October, 29 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 25 per cent thought the country's economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were very pessimistic one year ago, i.e. 19 and 40 per cent. In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in October their own economy would improve. This is a few percentage points lower than before, but still only 9 per cent of consumers feared their own economic situation would worsen.
As many as 44 per cent of consumers thought in October that unemployment would increase in the next 12 months, and just 20 per cent estimated unemployment would decrease. The corresponding proportions were 36 and 24 per cent one month previously. Still around every tenth employed person reckoned that they were personally likely to become unemployed in the next 12 months. Consumers predicted that the rate of inflation would be 1.6 per cent in October 2003.
In October, 69 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for raising a loan and 14 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. In October, 60 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile and 71 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months. Intentions to save money and take out a loan to buy a dwelling have fallen slightly from the top figures recorded in the early part of the year.
In October, 36 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying consumer durables. The corresponding proportion was 43 per cent in October last year. Consumers still had plenty of consumption intentions, such as plans for travelling and home improvement. Eight per cent of households intended to buy a car in the next six months and 6 per cent were thinking of buying a dwelling over the next 12 months.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-10/2002
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy
in 12 months' time 10/1995-10/2002
Recent comparative data about consumer confidence in various EU
Member States will be available on 31 October at 1 pm at:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2002, October. Statistics Finland