GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in September from the previous month

According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP was 0.1 per cent lower in September than in August. Of the main industries of the monthly indicator, manufacturing and trade fell slightly compared to August.

Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series

From the early part of the year to July, GDP grew strongly every month compared to the latter part of 2001. The volume of GDP was 42 per cent higher in September 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 20 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.

The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.

It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.

GDP went up by 1.9 per cent from last year's September

In September 2002, GDP increased by 1.9 per cent compared to the lower output level in last year's September. In September 2001, output volumes fell in primary production, manufacturing, construction and transport. In September 2002, output volumes grew in all the main industries of the monthly indicator in comparison to last year.

Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month

Industrial output as calculated per working day grew by 1 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 3 per cent and in the chemical industry by nearly 2 per cent. The manufacture of electrical equipment was on the same level as in September 2001.

Sale volumes of trade rose by 2 per cent from last year's September. Sales of motor vehicles increased by 9 per cent and retail trade by less than 2 per cent. Sale volumes of wholesale trade were on level with last year's September.

Output in agriculture and forestry went up by 14 per cent from September 2001. Fellings accelerated by 26 per cent, since domestic fellings were exceptionally small in September 2001. Milk production decreased by 1 per cent. Meat production grew by 9 per cent and crop growing by close on 3 per cent.

Transport accelerated by 5 per cent. Output in other services and public services rose by a good 1 per cent. Construction increased by 1 per cent from September 2001.

The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.

Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, September. Statistics Finland