29 November 2002
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö
Consumers have confidence in their own economy
As a rule, consumers' estimates and expectations concerning the economy have been growing weaker ever since June. In November, however, the consumer confidence indicator stood at 9.5, or slightly higher than in October and distinctly higher than twelve months ago. Consumers' views about their own economy and saving possibilities were positive in November. Conversely, they viewed the development of unemployment pessimistically and that of Finland's economy sceptically. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,600 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 November.
Consumer views on economic and financial conditions in Finland in November 2002
>
|
November 2002 balance |
October 2002 balance |
November 2001 balance |
Average 10/95-11/02 |
|||||
|
Consumer confidence indicator |
9.5 |
7.8 |
3.5 |
14.2 |
||||
|
Own economic situation in 12 months' time |
9.1 |
8.3 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
||||
|
Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months |
40.7 |
34.7 |
36.5 |
26.9 |
||||
|
General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time |
1.5 |
1.7 |
-10.1 |
8.8 |
||||
|
Unemployment in 12 months' time |
13.2 |
13.4 |
20.2 |
-12.8 |
||||
|
Price trend over the next 12 months, % |
1.7 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
1.9 |
||||
|
Financial situation of household at present |
27.3 |
26.1 |
26.3 |
22.4 |
||||
|
Favourable time to make major purchases at present |
8.3 |
7.9 |
12.7 |
17.7 |
||||
|
Favourable time to save at present |
15.6 |
13.9 |
18.9 |
2.3 |
||||
|
Favourable time to raise a loan at present |
25.7 |
25.6 |
20.7 |
19.5 |
||||
|
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, household's saving possibilities and unemployment (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. A positive balance figure denotes an optimistic and a negative balance figure a pessimistic view on the economy, except for unemployment where the reverse applies. |
||||||||
In November, 28 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 25 per cent thought it would worsen. A year ago, the respective proportions were very pessimistic, or 19 and 38 per cent. In all, 26 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economic situation would improve, whereas only 10 per cent feared it would worsen.
Altogether 43 per cent of consumers thought in November that unemployment would rise, while only 20 per cent of them believed it would fall in the next 12 months. The corresponding proportions in November 2001 were 54 and 18 per cent. Approximately one employed person out of ten continued to envisage becoming personally unemployed within the next 12 months. Consumers predicted that the rate of inflation in November 2003 would be 1.7 per cent.
A total of 69 per cent of consumers thought in November that the time was favourable for raising a loan and 16 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. Saving was considered worthwhile by 62 per cent of consumers and as many as 75 per cent of households believed they would be able to lay aside money in the next 12 months. Saving is mostly done for a rainy day and for paying off debts, and relatively few households invest their savings in instruments other thank bank accounts.
In November, 37 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Households had plenty of plans for spending on e.g. travel and entertainment electronics. Eight per cent of them intended to purchase a car in the next six months and 6 per cent thought of buying a dwelling in the next 12 months. The share of households thinking of purchasing a digital TV adaptor was still no higher than five per cent.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-11/2002
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in twelve months' time 10/1995-11/2002
Latest
comparative data about consumer confidence in various EU Member
States will be available on 29 November after 1 pm at:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2002, November. Statistics Finland