GDP in October on the same level as in September

According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP in October was on the same level as the month before. In September and October, the growth of GDP levelled out as compared with the preceding months.

Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series

The volume of GDP was 42 per cent higher in October 2002 than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 21 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.

The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.

It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.

GDP up by 2.9 per cent from one year ago

In October 2002, GDP increased by 2.9 per cent as compared with the lower output level of October previous year. In October 2002, output volumes grew in all the main industries of the monthly indicator in comparison to October 2001.

Percentage changes of GDP from the corresponding month of the previous year

Industrial output as calculated per working day grew by 4 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 10 per cent, and energy supply output rose by 24 per cent. The manufacture of electrical equipment rose by 4 per cent. Output in the chemical industry was on the same level as in October previous year.

Sale volumes of trade rose by 2 per cent from October 2001. Sales of motor vehicles increased by 11 per cent. In retail trade, sales were up less than 4 per cent. Wholesale sales volumes decreased by one per cent.

Output in agriculture and forestry rose by 9 per cent. Fellings increased by 16 per cent from their exceptionally low level in October 2001. Milk production decreased by 2 per cent. Meat production grew by 3 per cent and crop growing by nearly 3 per cent.

Transport rose by 5 per cent. Construction increased by nearly 2 per cent. Output in other services and public services rose by one per cent from October 2001.

The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.

Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, October. Statistics Finland