GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in November from the previous month

According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP was 0.1 per cent higher in November 2002 than in October. The growth rate of GDP stabilised between August and November in comparison to the previous months.

Volume of GDP in 1990-2002, trend and seasonally adjusted series

In November 2002 the volume of GDP was 43 per cent higher than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 21 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.

The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.

It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.

GDP went up by 3.1 per cent from November 2001

In November 2002, GDP increased by 3.1 per cent compared to the lower output level in November 2001. In November 2002, output volumes grew in all the main industries of the monthly indicator in comparison to the previous November.

Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month

Industrial output as calculated per working day grew by 5 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry rose by 10 per cent and energy supply by 19 per cent. The manufacture of electrical equipment increased by 8 per cent. Output volume in the chemical industry went down by 2 per cent.

Sale volumes of trade went up by 2 per cent. Sales of motor vehicles increased by 8 per cent and retail trade by nearly 3 per cent. Sale volumes of wholesale trade were on level with the previous year's November.

Output in agriculture and forestry went up by 7 per cent from November 2001. Fellings strengthened by 12 per cent, since domestic fellings were exceptionally low in November 2001. Meat production increased by nearly 4 per cent. Milk production fell by over 1 per cent.

Transport accelerated by good 3 per cent. Construction increased by close on 1 per cent. Output in other services and public services rose by 1 per cent from November 2001.

The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.

Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2002, November. Statistics Finland