GDP in January on level with the previous month

According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP did not grow in January 2003 compared to the previous month. The strong growth of GDP slowed towards the end of last year and has remained almost unchanged until January of this year.

Volume of GDP in 1990-2003, trend and seasonally adjusted series

In January 2003, the volume of GDP was 39 per cent higher than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 20 per cent higher than in December 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.

The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.

It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.

GDP went up by 0.7 per cent from January 2002

In January 2003, GDP increased by 0.7 per cent compared to the previous year's January. Primary production and construction fell and output volumes of manufacturing were unchanged. Trade, transport and other service industries grew.

Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month

Industrial output as calculated per working day was equal to that of January 2002. Output in the wood and paper industry fell by 2 per cent. The manufacture of electrical equipment increased by 14 per cent and energy supply by 13 per cent. Without the electrical industry, output in the metal industry went down by 5 per cent.

Sale volumes of trade went up by close on 3 per cent. Wholesale trade grew by 2 per cent, retail trade by nearly 4 per cent and sales of motor vehicles by under 2 per cent.

Output in agriculture and forestry went down by 7 per cent from last year's January. Fellings slowed down by 12 per cent and milk production fell by 3 per cent. Meat production increased by 6 per cent.

Construction declined by 2 per cent. Transport accelerated by 3 per cent. Output in other services and public services rose by 1 per cent from January 2002.

The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.

Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2003, January. Statistics Finland