26 May 2003
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Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö
Volume of GDP fell in March from the previous month
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP went down by 0.1 per cent in March compared to February. The output volume produced by the whole economy in a month has not grown since the end of 2002.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2003, trend and seasonally adjusted series
In March 2003, the volume of GDP was 38 per cent higher than in March 1993 at the depth of the recession and 19 per cent higher than in March 1989 at the height of the economic boom preceding the recession.
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP went up by 0.9 per cent from March 2002
In March 2003, GDP increased by 0.9 per cent compared to the previous year's March. Primary production, construction, trade, transport and other service industries grew. Manufacturing contracted.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Industrial output as calculated per working day fell by 2.1 per cent. The manufacture of electronic and electrical equipment decreased by 15 per cent. Without the electrical industry, the metal industry went down by 2.6 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry increased by 5 per cent. Energy supply grew by 16 per cent.
Trading day adjusted sale volumes of trade increased by good 3 per cent from March 2002. Sales of motor vehicles accelerated by 12 per cent, retail trade by 2 per cent and wholesale trade by under 2 per cent.
Output in agriculture and forestry was 6 per cent higher than in March last year. Meat production increased by 15 per cent and fellings by 6 per cent. Milk production fell by 2 per cent.
Transport accelerated by nearly 6 per cent. Output in other service industries rose by 1 per cent. Construction increased by almost 1 per cent from March 2002.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2003, March. Statistics Finland