Volume of GDP grew in June

According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP increased by 0.2 per cent in June compared with May. The output volume also rose in April and May from the previous month.

Volume of GDP in 1990-2003, trend and seasonally adjusted series

When totalled up, seasonally adjusted GDP for the April to June period rose from the preceding three-month period. Examined over a six-month period, the volume of GDP was slightly smaller in the January to June period than in the July to December period of last year.

The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.

It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.

GDP went up by 1.0 per cent from June 2002

GDP increased by 1.0 per cent compared with the previous year's June. Of the six main industries of the monthly indicator, primary production, trade, transport and other service industries grew. Manufacturing and construction contracted.

Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month

Trading day adjusted sale volumes of trade increased by nearly 7 per cent from June 2002. Sales of motor vehicles accelerated by as much as 20 per cent. Wholesale trade grew by 5 per cent and retail trade by 2 per cent.

Industrial output declined by 1.8 per cent. The metal industry fell by 6 per cent and the manufacture of electronic and electrical equipment decreased by 12 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry increased by 1 per cent. Output volumes in other manufacturing grew by close on 3 per cent. Energy supply went up by 22 per cent.

Output in agriculture and forestry was nearly 13 per cent higher than in June last year. Fellings strengthened by as much as 25 per cent. Meat production increased by 13 per cent and milk production fell by 3 per cent.

Transport accelerated by 5 per cent. Output in other service industries rose by good 1 per cent. Construction contracted by 2 per cent from June 2002.

The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product published later.

From the data of June 2003 onwards, the previous years of the total index of the monthly indicator (1990-2002) have been matched to the market price volume of GDP of the quarterly national accounts. The development of the sub-industries of the monthly indicator was also matched to the quarterly accounts.

The current year is calculated in the monthly indicator independently on the basis of the indicators describing the development of twelve different industries of the economy. When calculating the observations of the current year, the original index series was adopted as the indicator of industrial output in place of the working day adjusted one.

Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2003, June. Statistics Finland

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