23 December 2003
Inquiries: Mr Arto Kokkinen +358 9 1734 3355
Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö
Volume of GDP grew in October
According to the trend of the Monthly Indicator of GDP calculated by Statistics Finland, the volume of GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in October compared with September. GDP has been growing compared with the previous month ever since April.
Volume of GDP in 1990-2003, trend and seasonally adjusted series
The economic time series can be divided into trend cycle, seasonal variation and random variation components. When the seasonal variation component is removed from the original series of GDP, a seasonally adjusted series is obtained, the changes in which still vary greatly from the previous month. When the seasonally adjusted series is also adjusted for the random variation component, the trend series that describes economic trends the most stably is left over. Seasonal variation and random variation components are removed by X11ARIMA models.
It should be noted that the series adjusted for seasonal and random variation become revised with new observations. The last three point figures of the trend cycle series should be taken with reservations because especially at the turning points new observations can change significantly the figures adjusted for seasonal and random variation.
GDP grew by 1.2 per cent from October 2002
GDP increased by 1.2 per cent compared with the previous year's October. Of the six main industries of the monthly indicator, trade, transport, other service industries and construction grew. Manufacturing remained on level with the previous year. Primary production fell.
Percentage changes of GDP from the previous year's corresponding month
Trading day adjusted sale volumes of trade increased by as much as 8 per cent from October 2002. Sales of motor vehicles grew by 21 per cent. Wholesale trade accelerated by 5 per cent and retail trade by 6 per cent. Trading day adjustment takes into account different numbers of trading days in months.
Industrial output was on level with last year's October. The manufacture of electronic and electrical equipment fell by 8 per cent, while the output volume of the whole metal industry decreased by 5 per cent. Output in the wood and paper industry increased by 3 per cent. Output volumes in other manufacturing grew by 6 per cent. Energy supply went up by 3 per cent.
The volume of primary production was 6 per cent lower than in October 2002. Crop cultivation fell by 11 per cent. Meat production went up by 4 per cent and milk production decreased by 1 per cent. Fellings declined by 4 per cent.
Transport grew by 2 per cent. Construction accelerated by nearly 1 per cent from last year's October. Output in other service industries was 1 per cent higher than the year before.
The Monthly Indicator of GDP is based on twelve monthly series on different industries of the economy. The series are summed up by weighting. The purpose of the Monthly Indicator is to anticipate the development of the volume of the quarterly gross domestic product calculated later with more detailed data.
Source: Monthly Indicator of GDP 2003, October. Statistics Finland