27 July 2004
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö
Consumers' confidence in the economy weakened slightly in July
The strengthening of Finnish consumers' confidence in the economy halted in July. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 11.4, which is still higher than it was at the corresponding time last year. Of the four components of the confidence indicator, assessments of saving possibilities and views on unemployment grew gloomier from June, but expectations concerning own and Finland's economy remained more or less unchanged. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey, for which 1,565 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 July.
Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in July 2004
| July 2004 balance | June 2004 balance | July 2003 balance | Average 10/95-7/04 | |||||
| Consumer confidence indicator | 11.4 | 14.3 | 9.4 | 13.6 | ||||
| Own economic situation in 12 months' time | 9.9 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 8.8 | ||||
| Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months | 40.8 | 49.8 | 43.4 | 30.0 | ||||
| General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time | 5.6 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 7.6 | ||||
| Unemployment in 12 months' time | -10.6 | -8.9 | -16.8 | 7.8 | ||||
| Inflation in 12 months' time, % | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | ||||
| Personal threat of unemployment at present | 5.1 | 5.2 | .. | .. | ||||
| Financial situation of household at present | 29.7 | 31.1 | 31.4 | 23.8 | ||||
| Favourable time to make major purchases at present | 33.7 | 28.8 | 34.9 | 20.0 | ||||
| Favourable time to save at present | 11.1 | 13.7 | 9.6 | 4.2 | ||||
| Favourable time to raise a loan at present | 28.8 | 26.3 | 35.6 | 21.7 | ||||
| The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, unemployment and household's saving possibilities. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. A positive balance figure denotes an optimistic and a negative balance figure a pessimistic view on the economy. | ||||||||
In July, 29 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 18 per cent of them thought the country's economy would deteriorate. In July 2003 the corresponding proportions were 29 and 25 per cent. In all, 27 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve and only 10 per cent feared it would worsen over the year.
Altogether 39 per cent of consumers thought in July that unemployment would increase in the next 12 months while 20 per cent believed it would decrease. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 47 and 17 per cent. Thirteen per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had grown while slightly more, or 17 per cent, thought it had lessened over the past few months. Consumers predicted that consumer prices would go up by exactly 2 per cent over the next 12 months.
Seventy-three per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for raising a loan in July, and 13 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. Saving was considered worthwhile by 59 per cent of consumers, and 63 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money while 74 per cent of them believed they would be able to do so in the next 12 months. One month earlier, 79 per cent of households thought they would be able to save some money.
In July, 54 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying consumer durables. Households had plenty of intentions to travel, do home repairs and purchase home appliances. Nineteen per cent of households were either fairly or very certain to buy a car and 7 per cent a dwelling within the next 12 months.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-7/2004
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy
in 12 months' time 10/1995-7/2004
Consumer confidence indicator in EU Member States,
June 2004
Deviation of indicator from country average 10/1995-6/2004*
*Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Malta does not
conduct a consumer survey; Data for France are missing due to break
in series.
Averages from a shorter time period: Luxembourg 1/2002-, Cyprus,
Lithuania and Poland 1/2001-, Slovakia 4/1999-
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey
Results, June 2004
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2004, July. Statistics Finland
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