27 August 2004
Inquiries: Mr Pertti Kangassalo +358 9 1734
3598, pertti.kangassalo@stat.fi
Director in charge: Mr Ari Tyrkkö
Consumers' confidence stronger than average in August
Consumers' confidence in the economy has strengthened after a drop in July. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 14.8 in August, i.e. several units higher than one month or year ago. At the same time, the indicator exceeded its long-time average. All the four components of the confidence indicator improved in August compared with July. This was most visible in consumers' views about saving possibilities and development of unemployment. The data are based on Statistics Finland's Consumer Survey for which 1,532 persons resident in Finland were interviewed between 2 and 19 August.
Consumer views on the economic and financial conditions in Finland in August 2004
| August 2004 balance | July 2004 balance | August 2003 balance | Average 10/95-8/04 | |||||||||
| Consumer confidence indicator | 14.8 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 13.6 | ||||||||
| Own economic situation in 12 months' time | 10.8 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 8.8 | ||||||||
| Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months | 46.7 | 40.8 | 43.4 | 30.2 | ||||||||
| General economic situation in Finland in 12 months' time | 6.3 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 7.6 | ||||||||
| Unemployment in 12 months' time | -4.5 | -10.6 | -19.1 | 7.7 | ||||||||
| Inflation in 12 months' time, % | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | ||||||||
| Personal threat of unemployment at present | 5.9 | 5.1 | .. | .. | ||||||||
| Financial situation of household at present | 30.6 | 29.7 | 30.3 | 23.9 | ||||||||
| Favourable time to make major purchases at present | 29.4 | 33.7 | 37.7 | 20.1 | ||||||||
| Favourable time to save at present | 12.6 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 4.3 | ||||||||
| Favourable time to raise a loan at present | 29.9 | 28.8 | 33.9 | 21.8 | ||||||||
| The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions concerning the next 12 months: own and Finland's economy, unemployment and household's saving possibilities. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100. A positive balance figure denotes an optimistic and a negative balance figure a pessimistic view on the economy. | 35,7 | 30,2 | 34,7 | 21,6 | ||||||||
In August, 32 per cent of consumers believed that Finland's economic situation would improve in the next 12 months, while 19 per cent of them thought the country's economy would deteriorate. In all, 29 per cent of consumers believed in August that their own economy would improve and only 10 per cent feared it would worsen over the year.
Altogether 32 per cent of consumers thought in August that unemployment would increase in the next 12 months while 25 per cent believed it would decrease. The corresponding proportions were 39 and 20 per cent in July, and 50 and 16 per cent one year ago. Eleven per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had grown over the past few months, but slightly more, or 16 per cent, of them thought it had lessened. Consumers predicted that consumer prices would rise by 2.1 per cent in the next twelve months.
In August, 73 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for raising a loan, and 14 per cent of households were planning to do so in the next 12 months. In August, 60 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. Sixty-three per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money while 79 per cent of them believed they would be able to do so in the next 12 months. One month previously, 74 per cent of households had thought that they would be able to save money in the coming months.
In August, 52 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying consumer durables. Households also had plenty of intentions to buy home appliances, do home repairs and travel. As many as 20 per cent of households were planning to buy a digital set-top box within the next six months. Twenty-one per cent of households were either fairly or very certain to buy a car and 7 per cent a dwelling within the next 12 months.
Detailed data about the frequency of home appliances in households are also available from Statistics Finland. The most recent data were collected in connection with the August interviews for the Consumer Survey.
Consumer confidence indicator 10/1995-8/2004
Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy
in 12 months' time 10/1995-8/2004
Consumer confidence indicator in EU Member States,
July 2004
Deviation of indicator from country average 10/1995-7/2004*
*Calculated from seasonally adjusted series. Malta does not
conduct a consumer survey. Data for France are missing due to break
in series.
Averages from a shorter time period: Luxembourg 1/2002-, Cyprus,
Lithuania and Poland 1/2001-, Slovakia 4/1999-
Source: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey
Results, July 2004
http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm
Source: Consumer Survey 2004, August. Statistics Finland
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