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Published: 27 April 2015

Consumers' expectations concerning their own economy on the rise

Consumers’ confidence in the economy remained unchanged in April. The consumer confidence indicator stood at 11.4 in April, having been 11.2 in March and 10.6 in February. Last year in April, the consumer confidence indicator received the value 3.7. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 11.8. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,310 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 April.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the consumer confidence indicator, expectations on own and Finland’s economy and of unemployment improved slightly in April compared with March. By contrast, assessments concerning household's saving possibilities weakened but remained, nevertheless, bright. Consumers' expectations on their own economy have improved evenly since October 2014. In April, the expectations were at their highest since May 2011.

In April, consumers regarded the time more favourable for raising a loan than for buying durable goods or, in particular, saving. In April, employed consumers felt personally somewhat less threatened by unemployment than in March.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In April, 33 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 21 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 30 and 25 per cent in March and 28 and 30 per cent one year ago in April.

In all, 28 per cent of consumers believed in April that their own economy would improve, while 11 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. Twelve months earlier the corresponding proportions were 22 and 15 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether, 42 per cent of consumers thought in April that unemployment would increase over the year, and 20 per cent of them believed it would decrease. The corresponding proportions were 47 and 17 per cent in March and 58 and 12 per cent one year ago.

Twenty per cent of employed persons reckoned in April that their personal threat of unemployment had grown over the past few months and 14 per cent thought it had lessened. Forty-six per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained unchanged and 19 per cent felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in April that consumer prices would go up by 1.2 per cent over the next 12 months. In April 2014, the predicted inflation rate was 2.4 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In April, 47 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Fifteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Twenty-three per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

Altogether, 50 per cent of consumers regarded the time favourable for saving in April. In all, 64 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 76 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In April, 68 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Eleven per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	04/2014	03/2015	04/2015	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,8	22,9	-6,5	3,7	11,2	11,4	=
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,4	14,1	2,3	4,2	8,5	10,7	+
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,2	25,3	-27,1	-2,5	1,2	5,0	=
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	2,4	1,3	1,2
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3,3	27,6	-51,1	-25,5	-16,2	-12,5	-
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1,0	7,6	-18,8	-9,3	-8,7	-2,8	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	1,9	17,2	18,6	=
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,9	36,8	-19,6	3,7	3,3	-0,1	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,9	42,0	-47,1	10,6	22,2	26,1	+
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39,0	52,2	10,9	38,7	51,0	42,2	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In April, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 44.3 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat affected the results on owning various home technology.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2015, April. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Tara Junes 029 551 3503, Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.4.2015)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.4.2015)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.4.2015)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (27.4.2015)

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Updated 27.4.2015