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Published: 28 September 2015

Consumer confidence weakened – still stronger than one year ago

The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 4.2 in September, having been 8.3 in August and 6.9 in July. Last year in September, the CCI received the value -0.7. The long-term average for the CCI is 11.8. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,260 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 18 September.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the CCI, only assessments of the household’s saving possibilities remained unchanged in September from August. The other components deteriorated. In September, consumers' views concerning their own economy were weak and views on Finland's economy and about unemployment were gloomy. By contrast, belief in own saving possibilities remained good.

In September, consumers did not consider the time very favourable for raising a loan or buying durable goods, and in particular not for saving. In September, employed consumers felt personally slightly more threatened by unemployment than on average, as was the case also in August and one year ago.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In September, 24 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while more, or 36 per cent, of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 30 and 27 per cent in August and pessimistic 17 and 42 per cent one year ago.

In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in September that their own economy would improve and 16 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Only 12 per cent of consumers thought in September that unemployment would decrease over the next year, while 61 per cent of them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were 14 and 50 per cent in August and 9 and 66 per cent one year ago.

Twelve per cent of employed persons reckoned in September that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 19 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-two per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in September that consumer prices would go up by 1.5 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In September, 46 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for making major purchases. Last year in September, the corresponding proportion was 38 per cent. Only 13 per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Nineteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

In September, 53 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile. Sixty-five per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and as many as 81 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. In the long term, the average share of households that have saved or think they will be able to save is 59 and 74 per cent, respectively.

In September, 59 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Nevertheless, only 12 per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	09/2014	08/2015	09/2015	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,8	22,9	-6,5	-0,7	8,3	4,2	--
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,4	14,1	2,3	3,6	5,5	4,8	--
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,2	25,3	-27,1	-15,8	-0,7	-9,5	--
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	2,2	1,5	1,5
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3,5	27,6	-51,1	-32,6	-20,6	-28,3	--
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1,2	7,6	-18,8	-9,2	-4,3	-3,7	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	3,3	20,1	15,5	=
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,7	36,8	-19,6	2,3	7,4	5,2	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,9	42,0	-47,1	6,1	19,6	14,3	=
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39,1	52,2	10,9	42,1	49,0	49,7	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons. In September 2015, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 46.4 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2015, September. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (28.9.2015)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (28.9.2015)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (28.9.2015)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (28.9.2015)

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Updated 28.9.2015