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Published: 27 November 2017

Consumer confidence unchanged in November

The consumer confidence indicator stood at 23.0 in November, having been 23.1 in October and 23.7 in September. Confidence in the economy has been very strong for one year. In last year’s November the consumer confidence indicator received the value 17.6. The long-term average for the confidence indicator is 12.2. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,183 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 November.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Consumers’ views regarding all four components of the consumer confidence indicator remained more or less unchanged from October in November. Compared with the corresponding period last year, all the components of the indicator apart from saving possibilities improved.

In November, consumers’ expectations concerning Finland's economy and unemployment were very bright. Consumers’ assessments about their own economic situation and saving possibilities were also good.

In November, consumers regarded the time very favourable for taking out a loan. Buying of durable goods and saving were also considered worthwhile. Employed consumers felt in November that their personal threat of unemployment has decreased in recent months.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In November, 47 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while only eight per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In October, the respective proportions were 48 and 10 per cent and in last year's November 42 and 16 per cent.

In all, 28 per cent of consumers believed in November that their own economy would improve and 11 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year. One month earlier, the corresponding proportions were 29 and 10 per cent, and one year earlier 26 and 13 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 48 per cent of consumers thought in November that unemployment would decrease over the year, while 16 per cent of them believed it would increase. In October, the proportions were the same and twelve months ago 34 and 28 per cent.

Seventeen per cent of employed persons reckoned in November that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 14 per cent thought it had grown. Thirty-two per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in November that consumer prices would go up by 1.7 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In November, 45 per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for buying durable goods. General intentions to spend money were fairly moderate. Seventeen per cent of households were either very or fairly certain to buy a car during the next 12 months. Seven per cent of households considered purchasing a dwelling. In November, 16 per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

A total of 64 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile this November. Twelve months ago, the respective proportion was 51 per cent. In November, 66 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 78 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 75 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. The long-term average proportion is 62 per cent. This November, 12 per cent of households were thinking of taking out a loan within one year.

Consumer confidence by major region and population group

In November, consumers' confidence in the economy was strongest in Greater Helsinki and weakest in Northern Finland. Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were clearly most optimistic. Pensioners and unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	11/2016	10/2017	11/2017	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	12.2	24.1	-6.5	17.6	23.1	23.0	++
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8.3	14.1	2.3	7.4	10.6	9.8	+
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3.9	25.3	-27.1	12.0	19.6	19.7	++
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2.2	4.6	0.6	1.6	1.7	1.7
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3.3	27.6	-51.1	2.4	15.8	16.3	++
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1.1	7.6	-18.8	-0.5	2.9	3.7	+
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18.5	41.8	-14.2	25.2	24.2	26.6	+
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10.6	36.8	-19.6	3.5	23.3	19.8	+
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	18.1	42.0	-47.1	30.8	33.1	36.1	++
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39.8	52.2	10.9	48.7	46.5	46.5	+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results .

Source: Consumer Survey 2017, November. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Jari Tarkoma

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Reviews

• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.11.2017)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.11.2017)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.11.2017)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy, next 12 months (27.11.2017)

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Updated 27.11.2017