Home > Statistics > Quarterly national accounts > 2015 > 3rd quarter > The output of Finland's national economy decreased in July to September

The output of Finland's national economy decreased in July to September

In July to September of 2015, the seasonally adjusted volume of Finland’s gross domestic product decreased by 0.5 per cent from the previous quarter. GDP adjusted for working days declined by 0.2 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2014. Calculated at current prices, gross domestic product adjusted for working days was at the same level as one year ago.

Figure 1. Volume change of GDP from the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, per cent

According to preliminary data compiled by Eurostat, GDP in the EU-28 area grew by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter.

Production

The volume of total value added generated by all industries decreased by 0.4 per cent from the previous quarter and by 0.3 per cent from twelve months back.

Figure 2. Changes in the volume of value added in the 3rd quarter of 2015 compared to one year ago (working day adjusted, per cent)

Figure 3. Changes in the volume of value added in the 3rd quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted, per cent)

In primary production, that is, agriculture, forestry and fishing, the volume of value added decreased by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter year-on-year and remained on level with the previous quarter.

Manufacturing output decreased by 1.2 per cent from the previous quarter and by 3.3 per cent from twelve months ago in July to September. Output of manufacturing industries C decreased by 1.6 per cent from the previous quarter and was 4.3 per cent lower than one year ago. Especially the volume of the electrical and electronics industry decreased and was nearly 20 per cent lower in the third quarter of 2015 than one year earlier.

The construction industry grew by 0.1 per cent in July to September from the previous quarter and by 0.2 per cent year-on-year.

In service industries, value added declined by 0.1 per cent from the previous quarter but increased by 0.5 per cent from twelve months back. Compared to one year ago, value added in private services grew by 1.6 per cent but value added in public services fell by 2.3 per cent.

Value added in trade was 0.7 per cent up on the previous quarter but 0.5 per cent down on the respective quarter twelve months back. The scrapping bonus trial that began in July has apparently boosted motor vehicle trade that grew by 2.3 per cent from the previous quarter and by 4.2 per cent from twelve months ago. By contrast, wholesale trade fell by 0.4 per cent from the previous quarter and by 3.0 per cent year-on-year. Retail trade grew marginally.

Imports, exports, consumption and gross fixed capital formation

In the third quarter of 2015, total demand declined by 0.6 per cent from the previous quarter and by 1.8 per cent from the third quarter of 2014. Contraction of exports and gross fixed capital formation lowered demand in the national economy.

Figure 4. Changes in the volume of main supply and demand items in the 3rd quarter of 2015 compared to one year ago (working day adjusted, per cent)

Figure 5. Changes in the volume of main supply and demand items in the 3rd quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted, per cent)

The volume of exports decreased by 0.7 per cent from the previous quarter. Compared with the volume one year ago, the volume of exports declined by 3.4 per cent in July to September. Exports of goods decreased by 2.9 per cent and those of services by 4.6 per cent year-on-year.

The volume of imports grew by 1.8 per cent from the previous quarter but contracted by 3.4 per cent year-on-year. Imports of goods decreased by 1.7 per cent and those of services by 7.5 per cent year-on-year.

In the third quarter, the volume of private consumption grew by 0.8 per cent from the previous quarter and by 1.4 per cent from twelve months back. Public consumption expenditure grew by 0.1 per cent from the second quarter and remained on level with the third quarter of 2014.

Gross fixed capital formation, or investments, fell by 1.4 per cent from the previous quarter and by 3.9 per cent year-on-year. Private investments declined by 3.6 per cent and government investments by 5.0 per cent year-on-year.

Investments in residential buildings diminished by 3.0 per cent and investments in non-residential buildings by 5.4 per cent from one year ago. Investments in civil engineering grew by 6.3 per cent year-on-year. The volume of gross fixed capital formation in machinery, equipment and transport equipment contracted by 5.2 per cent from the third quarter of 2014.

Employment, wages and salaries and national income

In the third quarter, the number of employed persons grew by 0.1 per cent from the previous quarter and remained unchanged year-on-year. The number of hours worked in the national economy increased by 0.9 per cent from the previous quarter and by 0.2 per cent from the third quarter of 2014.

According to Statistics Finland’s Labour Force Survey, the rate of unemployment for the July to September period was 8.4 per cent. In the corresponding period of last year it stood at 7.5 per cent.

In July to September, the nominal wages and salaries bill of the national economy grew by 0.5 per cent from the previous quarter and by 1.2 per cent year-on-year. Social contributions paid by employers grew by 2.3 per cent from last year.

The operating surplus (net), which in business bookkeeping corresponds roughly with operating profit, contracted by 6.2 per cent from twelve months back. Gross national income calculated at current prices was 2.3 per cent higher than one year previously. The growth in property income from abroad and the decrease in property income paid to abroad, increased the gross national income.

New seasonal adjustment software adopted

Starting from the data for the third quarter of 2015, a new seasonal adjustment software J-Demetra+ has been adopted in the Quarterly National Accounts. The software change does not affect the used seasonal adjustment method. The change does not influence the interpretation or use of the time series either. You can read more about the implementation of the new seasonal adjustment software Statistics Finland´s press release .

In connection with the adoption of the new seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal adjustment models of the time series are also updated. Due to the updating of the models, the seasonally adjusted series, the working day adjusted series, and the trend series may change. As a rule, changes caused by the updating of the models are minor.

The available data

These preliminary data on the third quarter of 2015 are based on the source information on economic development that had become available by 27 November 2015.

The annual level data for 1990 to 2014 correspond with the National Accounts data released on 9 July 2015, except for those on the rest of the world sector (imports, exports, primary income from/to the rest of the world), which may have become revised.

Data concerning the last quarter of 2015 will be released on 29/02/2016, when the data for earlier quarters will also be revised. A flash estimate on GDP development for October to December will be released in connection with Trend Indicator of Output on 12/02/2016.

Due to the benchmarking and seasonal adjustment methods, quarterly data in the entire time series may become slightly revised in connection with each release. However, the largest revisions take place during the two to three years following the release on a quarter, because final annual accounts data are published at a lag of around two years from the end of the statistical reference year. Seasonally adjusted and trend time series always become revised against new observations irrespective of whether the original time series becomes revised or not.

The quality description can be accessed at (in Finnish): http://www.tilastokeskus.fi/til/ntp/laa.html .

Methodological description of Quarterly National Accounts.

Source: National Accounts 2015, 3rd quarter. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Samu Hakala 029 551 3756, Veli-Pekka Karvinen 029 551 2667, kansantalous.suhdanteet@stat.fi

Director in charge: Ville Vertanen

---

Updated 4.12.2015