Consumer confidence: documentation of statistics
The documentation of the statistics describes how the statistics were compiled and what methods were used in the compilation. The data help interpret the figures of the statistics and evaluate their reliability and comparability. The quality report is based on the EU's SIMS model. The documentation also contains change releases describing changes in the statistics and possible specifying methodological descriptions.
If you are looking for statistical figures for these statistics, go to the statistics page: Consumer confidence
Quality report
Data description (SIMS 3.1)
The statistics on consumer confidence describe consumers' views and expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy and consumers' intentions of making purchases, saving and raising a loan. The data are collected with web and telephone inquiries and published monthly.
Sector coverage (SIMS 3.3)
The statistics cover people aged 18 to 74 living in Finland, namely consumers.
Statistical population (SIMS 3.6)
The target population of the statistics consists of people aged 18 to 74 living in Finland, namely consumers.
Reference area (SIMS 3.7)
The reference area of the statistics is the whole of Finland and the areas based on the regions roughly corresponding to the previous provinces, the Greater Helsinki area as a separate area.
Time coverage (SIMS 3.8)
The data materials of the statistics cover all months starting from October 1995; the published data are final.
Unit of measure (SIMS 4)
The measurement units used in the statistics are the balance figure and per cent.
Reference period (SIMS 5)
For the purpose of statistics, questions are made on consumers’ economic views concerning the previous 12 months, the time of the survey and the next 12 months and also certain intentions to spend money concerning the next six months.
Classifications (SIMS 3.2)
The classifications used in the statistics are gender (sukupuoli_9_20180101), age group (ikaryhma_10_20180101), level of education (koulutusaste_17_20180101), socio-economic group (sosioekon_asema_10_20180101) and area (alue_23_20180101).
Concepts and definitions (SIMS 3.4)
Consumer Confidence Indicator
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) expresses consumers’ views and expectations concerning economic development. The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The components are: own economy now, own economy in one year’s time, Finland's economy in one year's time and consumer’s spending money on major purchases within one year. The confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100. The higher the figure, the brighter is the view on the economy.
Consumers’ intentions of buying
The statistics on consumer confidence explore consumers’ intentions to use money by target. The measurement unit is ‘per cent of consumers’: -Buying a new or used passenger car within 12 months -Buying a dwelling or building a house within 12 months -Home renovations in the next 12 months -Acquisitions in the next 6 months: free-time residence, home decoration, household appliances, entertainment electronics, hobby and sports equipment, other vehicle than car, leisure trip in Finland, leisure trip abroad.
Consumers’ intentions of taking out a loan
The statistics on consumer confidence examine consumers’ intentions of taking out a loan within 12 months. The measurement unit is ‘per cent of consumers’.
Consumers’ views on the economy
The statistics on consumer confidence explore consumers’ personal views and expectations concerning the economy. The measurement unit is ‘per cent of consumers’: -Consumer’s own economy now and in 12 months’ time -Finland's economy now and in 12 months’ time -General unemployment in 12 months’ time -Personal threat of unemployment now -Change in consumer prices now and in 12 months’ time -Favourable time for saving, taking out a loan and making major purchases at present -Consumer’s financial situation now -Consumer’s saving possibilities within 12 months -Consumer’s spending money on major purchases within 12 months
Person's household
Persons who live and share meals together or otherwise use their income together are considered to belong to the same household as the respondent. The size of the household can vary from a one-person household to, for instance, a household with several generations and numerous members. Persons that live at a different address most of the time but use their income together with members of a household can also be considered to belong to the same household. Such persons include, for example: -Persons living in another municipality e.g. due to work if they participate in acquiring income for the household; -Performers of military service/non-military service; -Persons in temporary hospital care; -For example, students living in a different municipality if they use their income together with the household. However, there may be persons living in the same apartment that do not belong to the same household. They use their own income and thus form their own household. Such persons include, for example: -Subtenants, domestic workers and boarders; -Foster children when the foster home activities are professional and the foster home arrangement is not intended to be permanent; -For example, students living in shared dwellings unless they are married or cohabiting.
Institutional mandate (SIMS 6)
The compilation of statistics is guided by the Statistics Act. The Statistics Act contains provisions on collection of data, processing of data and the obligation to provide data. Besides the Statistics Act, the General Data Protection Regulation, the Data Protection Act and the Act on the Openness of Government Activities are applied to processing of data when producing statistics.
Statistics Finland compiles statistics in line with the EU’s regulations applicable to statistics, which steer the statistical agencies of all EU Member States.
Further information: Statistical legislation
Legal acts and other agreements (SIMS 6.1)
The compilation of statistics is guided by the Statistics Act. The Statistics Act contains provisions on collection of data, processing of data and the obligation to provide data. Besides the Statistics Act, the Data Protection Act and the Act on the Openness of Government Activities are applied to processing of data when producing statistics.Statistics Finland compiles statistics in line with the EU’s regulations applicable to statistics, which steer the statistical agencies of all EU Member States.
Further information: Statistical legislation
Data sharing (SIMS 6.2)
The statistics have a framework agreement for several years (2021 to 2025) with the European Commission (DG ECFIN) received through an EU competition. The Commission finances the collection of data for the statistics with a fixed share (50%) recorded in the framework agreement. In addition, a more detailed EU agreement is made for each year from May to next year's April. The agreements have conditions for monthly data collection, data transmissions to DG ECFIN and data releases in the EU and Finland.
Cost and burden (SIMS 16)
It takes varying time to respond to the questionnaires of the statistics depending on the respondent. It is possible to answer in five to ten minutes. The web and interview questionnaires have been designed to be as short and easy as possible to fill in. It is technically possible to fill in the web form with any information technology device, including a mobile phone or tablet.
The costs of the collection of data under the EU agreement for the European Commission total about EUR 260,000 per year. The Commission reimburses 50 per cent of this.
Source data (SIMS 18.1)
The statistics are based on a sample survey. The population includes around 4.0 million persons aged 18 to 74 living in Finland. The monthly sample size is 2,200 persons. The sampling is made as systematic random sampling (SYS) from the population database maintained by Statistics Finland. The sorting order of the frame follows the geographical population density. The selection can be compared with the use of simple random sampling with the addition that the sample is geographically self-weighting. The survey area is the whole country. A rotating panel design is in use: respondents participate in the data collection twice within six months, and one-half of the sample are new respondents every month.
Data acquisition takes place in with the so-called mixed-mode data collection method, that is, by a self-filled web questionnaire or as a telephone interview. The register of employment statistics provides ready-made data on occupational groups for each respondent. After the current under 45 per cent non-response rate, the average size of the monthly response data is more than 1,200 persons. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted. Possible over-coverage (deaths, moves abroad and permanently in institutional care) is also included here in non-response.
Frequency of data collection (SIMS 18.2)
The data for the statistics are collected monthly.
Data collection (SIMS 18.3)
The data collection for the statistics is carried out as a mixed-mode data collection method, that is, by means of a self-filled web questionnaire or as a telephone interview. The respondents represent the population aged 18 to 74 in Finland according to age, gender, area of residence and native language.
After the current under 45 per cent non-response rate, the average size of the monthly response data is more than 1,200 persons. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted. Possible over-coverage (deaths, moves abroad and permanently in institutional care) is also included here in non-response.
Statistics Finland's interviewers are trained at the start of their employment relationship as regards both the interview technique and the information content of the statistics. The interviewers are assisted in their work by the guidelines of the data collection and the possibility to receive additional instructions from work supervisors and superiors, as well as from the researchers of the statistics. By means of the feedback from interviewers, the questionnaires can be updated and honed even better.
Each month, just before the beginning of the data collection, Statistics Finland sends to each sample person an accompanying letter for the data collection, which gives a brief description of the contents and purpose of the data collection. Email is also used for contacting and providing information. Telephone numbers and other contact information are obtained from the contact information register of the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela). If necessary, the interviewers supplement the contact information with number searches. The respondents can contact Statistics Finland themselves by telephone or email to find a suitable time for the interview.
The data collection starts on the first working day of the month and takes good two weeks. First starts web responding and telephone interviews after a few days. The web form is open throughout the collection period. The vast majority, over 70 per cent, of the responses come from the web questionnaire each month. The questionnaire is very short and fluent and can be filled in with any device such as PC, tablet or mobile phone. The data collection forms (web form and interview form) were designed and tested carefully at the start of the mixed-mode data collection. Swedish and English versions are also used for both forms.
Data validation (SIMS 18.4)
The complete combined data collection data of the statistics are checked, edited and weighted immediately after the end of the data collection by means of SAS, Excel and Calmar applications.
Data compilation (SIMS 18.5)
The complete combined data collection data of the statistics are checked, edited and weighted immediately after the end of the data collection by means of SAS, Excel and Calmar applications. All response data of the CCS are expanded to the whole population with weighting coefficients. The weighting corrects the effects of non-response and improves the statistical accuracy of the data. Weighting coefficients are calculated by using the probability of each observation to be included in the sample.
In the last stage, weighting coefficients are obtained with the calibration method (Calmar) so that the estimated marginal distributions of the selected background variables, the person's gender, age group, level of education and area of residence correspond to the marginal distributions obtained from the entire population, i.e. population structure. The weights are formed as a ratio between the cell frequencies of the population and the sample frequencies. It is not necessary to care about small cell frequencies or cell frequencies that remain zero. The method can also be called “incomplete post-stratification”. The calibration of weights is “automatically” made as part of the results processing programs (SAS).
The effect of weighting on sentiment indicator values is usually insignificant for three reasons. Firstly, the sampling design of the survey (SYS) produces a self-weighting sample. Secondly, non-response has remained fairly even in different population groups, so it has not much skewed the data. And thirdly, the correlation of questions concerning opinions and indictors calculated from them is weak with the variables used in weighting. It can be said that opinions are divided relatively much in different population groups.
Statistics Finland does not adjust seasonally the CCS time series published, but the European Commission does it later in its own release (on the level of each country and the whole EU).
Actual imputation is not used in the statistics. Only 60 to 70 cases of missing occupational codes are covered for monthly.
User needs (SIMS 12.1)
The users of the statistics are mainly economists or other persons involved in general economic matters who expect speedy and up-to-date and historically comparable information on consumers’ confidence, expectations and plans.
The statistics are in regular contact monthly with data users. Based on the feedback received, the data mostly correspond to users’ data needs.
User satisfaction (SIMS 12.2)
The authors of the statistics are in regular contact monthly with data users. Based on the feedback received, the data mostly correspond to users’ data needs.
Overall accuracy (SIMS 13.1)
Evaluation of the reliability of sentiment indicators is not unambiguous. The importance of information related to consumers’ expectations is, however, generally known and consumers’ sentiment indicators have long been used as part of predicting economic indicators and in economic forecasting models.
The CCI has been widely used in Finland in anticipating the activity of consumers. It has strongly correlated with changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and private consumption. The direct questions on plans of making purchases, saving or raising a loan have also been a good indication of how consumers' decisions are carried through. Consumers’ expectations concerning unemployment and inflation have also been quite accurate.
A few reliability surveys have been made on the CCS in Finland. At the beginning of the survey (1989 and 1990), Kari Djerf analysed the functioning and accuracy of certain data on intentions of purchase with macroeconomic indicators. A comprehensive reliability study was produced in 1997 on a tenyear study for the CIRET Conference in Helsinki (Djerf & Takala).
A paper on the CCS and the accuracy of its indicators was again prepared for the CIRET Conference in autumn 2010 (Kangasniemi, Kangassalo & Takala). After that, Tara Junes (2014) has made comparisons between consumer confidence and private consumption series in Finland and some other EU countries. Quite recently, the predictive power of the CCS data was substantiated by economists of the Bank of Finland (Lindblad & Silvo 2020). Furthermore, the Bank of Finland has studied the functioning of inflation expectations many times (Kuismanen & Spolander 1995, Pursiainen 1999, Kangassalo & Takala 2005, Paloviita et al. 2019 and 2021).
For the methodological aspects, Pertti Kangassalo and Veijo Notkola analysed the change in the structure of non-response when the data collection method changed in 1999 to 2000 (CIRET 2000). Later, the effects of the methodological change on the survey results were examined more extensively (Kangassalo & Heiskanen 2001).
In 2013, the response rates of all EU Member States' consumer surveys and the factors influencing them were examined on assignment of the European Commission (Task force on quality of BCS data; Junes & Kangassalo).
In spring 2019, the data collection method of the CCS changed from only telephone interviews into a so-called mixed-mode data collection, i.e. a self-filled web questionnaire and telephone interviews. This had different kinds of effects by question on the survey results. Tara Junes and Tuomas Parikka wrote a description of the effects of the change and the level revision of the time series in the publication of the CCS in January 2020.
Data collected with a sample survey always contain statistical inaccuracy, which is, however, reduced by weighting. The small size of the monthly response data of the statistics as well as non-response and its skewing cause inaccuracies to the results. In terms of the Consumer Confidence Indicator, this means an estimated margin of error of at least 1.8 unit in both directions:
Standard error for the CCI: 0.94 units (November 2023, n=1,240).
Confidence interval (95%) for the CCI: ± 1.96 x standard error = ± 1.84.
Non-sampling error (SIMS 13.3)
The share of over-coverage detected in the statistics is monthly under 0.5 per cent. The share of non-response is less than 45 per cent of the sample, no item non-response. An occupational code is “imputed” monthly for 60 to 70 observations (employed persons). ‘Don’t know’ entries are edited. The Calmar application is utilised in estimation, calibration of weighting coefficients.
Measurement error (SIMS 13.3.2)
There is inaccuracy in occupational coding for the statistics due to deficient background information.
Non-response error (SIMS 13.3.3)
The share of non-response in the statistics is monthly less than 45 per cent of the sample. Only under 20 per cent of non-response can be confirmed as being caused by refusals. For about 80 per cent the reason recorded is that the respondent was not reached (by interviewers).
Quality assurance (SIMS 11.1)
Quality management requires comprehensive guidance of activities. The European Statistics Code of Practice forms the basis for the common quality system of the European Statistical System.
The Code of Practice is based on 16 principles that concern statistical authorities' independence, accountability and the quality of the processes and data to be published.
The principles are in line with the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics approved by the United Nations Statistics Commission and are supplementary to them. The quality criteria of Official Statistics of Finland are compatible with the European Statistics Code of Practice.
Further information: European Statistics Code of Practice | Statistics Finland and Recommendations of the Advisory Board of Official Statistics of Finland | Statistics Finland
Quality assessment (SIMS 11.2)
The statistics check and edit the response data of the statistics monthly and non-response is examined (by different background information).
Data revision - policy (SIMS 17.1)
Revisions – i.e. improvements in the accuracy of statistical data already published – are a normal feature of statistical production and result in improved quality of statistics. The principle is that statistical data are based on the best available data and information concerning the statistical phenomenon. On the other hand, the revisions are communicated as transparently as possible in advance. Advance communication ensures that the users can prepare for the data revisions.
The reason why data in statistical releases become revised is often caused by the data becoming supplemented. Then the new, revised statistical figure is based on a wider information basis and describes the phenomenon more accurately than before.
Revisions of statistical data may also be caused by the calculation method used, such as annual benchmarking or updating of weight structures. Changes of base years and used classifications may also cause revisions to data.
Data revision - practice (SIMS 17.2)
There is no revision in the statistics.
Timeliness (SIMS 14.1)
There is no time lag in the statistics. The data are always published and available on the agreed date (notified in Statistics Finland's release calendar) around one week after the end of the data collection at the end of the survey month.
Punctuality (SIMS 14.2)
There is no time lag in the statistics. The data are always published and available on the agreed date (notified in Statistics Finland's release calendar) around one week after the end of the data collection at the end of the survey month.
Comparability - geographical (SIMS 15.1)
The data of the statistics are fully comparable by area.
The questions of the statistics have always been for the most part comparable with corresponding international surveys. In October 1995, the opinion questions of the survey were made compliant with the 15 questions of the EU countries’ harmonised Consumer Survey (currently 16 EU questions). Some of Finland's own questions have been included in the same form since the beginning of the survey, since November 1987.
In terms of the key questions, the survey is identical in all present and future EU countries.
Comparability - over time (SIMS 15.2)
Temporal comparability is valid for the statistics throughout the monthly period of the statistics, that is, starting from October 1995. There have been methodological changes but reweightings and level revisions have been made to all main time series.
The comparable time series of the statistics cover all months starting from October 1995. The figures of the time series before May 2019 have been reweighted and level revised to correspond to the survey results produced with the new data collection method (mixed-mode data collection) started in May 2019.
Coherence – cross domain (SIMS 15.3)
The content of the statistics differs much from the data and concepts of other statistics and the majority of the data (subjective/qualitative estimates and expectations of the economy) are not directly connected or comparable to other statistics. However, the questions concerning the generality of equipment and investment targets already discontinued in the survey were, with certain reservations, comparable and supplementary with respect to Statistics Finland's less frequently implemented large interview surveys (e.g. Household Budget Survey, Wealth Survey, Survey on use of information and communications technology by individuals).
On the other hand, the purpose of the statistics is to offer a tool for anticipating economic development, so the results and time series are always compared to the statistics describing the development of the national economy (e.g. National Accounts, Trend Indicator of Output, Labour Force Survey, Consumer Price Index, Bank Statistics).
The data of the statistics can be utilised in predicting the development of national accounts time series: GDP and private consumption by quarter, monthly Indicator of Total Output.
Coherence - internal (SIMS 15.4)
The data of the statistics are uniform.
The statistics are the only monthly survey in Finland that examines the economic sentiments and intentions of consumers.
Because the main purpose of the indicators of the statistics is to anticipate trends in the national economy and private consumption, the survey is conducted as unchanged in time as possible in terms of its methods and questions. Apart from a few exceptional phases, unbroken monthly time series have been secured in Finland starting from 1995.
Changes in data collection methods always have at least some effect on the response distributions of the statistics. As a result of the methodological change in 2000, the results concerning consumers' estimates of their household's financial situation and of the time being favourable for buying durable goods and saving became slightly more positive. Later on, the extension of the population to persons aged 75 to 84 is estimated to have weakened slightly the value of the Consumer Confidence Indicator starting from January 2012.
The most significant change in the statistical methodology took place in May 2019. At that time, the so-called mixed-mode data collection (self-filled web questionnaire and telephone interviews) and a rotating panel design were taken into use. In addition, the population was cut down to those aged 18 to 74, the weighting was renewed, the data content was considerably lightened and all questions were made personal, that is, only concerning the respondent (previously many questions were directed at the whole household). As expected, these changes had varying combined effects on the survey results depending on the question. However, based on the parallel collection and careful analysis of the effects made in February to April 2019, the time series of the statistics could be level revised retrospectively, to the start of the monthly data collection, that is, until 1995. Thus, the comparability of the data of the statistics remained relatively reliable over time. A description of the effects of the data collection change and the level revision of the time series can be found in the release of the statistics in January 2020.
Release calendar (SIMS 8.1)
Statistics Finland publishes new statistical data at 8 am on weekdays in its web service. The release times of statistics are given in advance in the release calendar available in the web service. The data become public after they have been updated in the web service.
Further information: Publication principles for statistics at Statistics Finland
Release calendar access (SIMS 8.2)
Statistics Finland's release calendar Future publications
Future publications of the statistics can be found on the page of the statistics at: Future publications of the statistics
User access (SIMS 8.3)
The data are released to all users at the same time. Statistical data may be processed at Statistics Finland and information on them may be given before release only by persons involved in the production of the statistics concerned or who need the data of the statistics concerned in their own work before the data are published.
Further information: Publication principles for statistics
Unless otherwise specifically stated in connection with the product, data or service concerned, Statistics Finland is the producer and copyright owner of the data. The terms of use for statistical data.
Frequency of dissemination (SIMS 9)
The data of the statistics are disseminated monthly.
News release (SIMS 10.1)
The release is published monthly on the home page of the statistics.
The monthly release of the statistics always contains the release text and the figures.
Publications (SIMS 10.2)
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Online database (SIMS 10.3)
The database tables of the statistics can be found in the StatFin database.
Other (SIMS 10.5)
The data of these statistics are also published as articles and blogs (Tieto&trendit) and on social media, e.g. X.
Confidentiality - policy (SIMS 7.1)
The data protection of data collected for statistical purposes is guaranteed. The compilation of statistics is guided by the Statistics Act. Alongside the Statistics Act, the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation and the Finnish Data Protection Act are applied to the processing of personal data. Provisions on the confidentiality of data collected for statistical purposes are laid down in the Act on the Openness of Government Activities.
The data are processed only by persons who need the data in their work. The use of data is restricted by usage rights. All persons employed by Statistics Finland have signed a pledge of secrecy, where they have obliged to keep secret the data prescribed as confidential by virtue of the Statistics Act or the Act on the Openness of Government Activities.
Further information: Data protection | Statistics Finland (stat.fi)
Confidentiality - data treatment (SIMS 7.2)
These statistics are statistics subject to insider rules: the persons/groups that are entitled to handle unit-level research data and see the results to be released beforehand are named exactly, and the list of these persons is updated whenever the persons change. The data of the statistics are retained in the directory of the statistics so that only the above-mentioned persons have access to them.