Trend indicator of output: documentation of statistics
The documentation of the statistics describes how the statistics were compiled and what methods were used in the compilation. The data help interpret the figures of the statistics and evaluate their reliability and comparability. The quality report is based on the EU's SIMS model. The documentation also contains change releases describing changes in the statistics and possible specifying methodological descriptions.
If you are looking for statistical figures for these statistics, go to the statistics page: Trend indicator of output
Quality report
Data description (SIMS 3.1)
The trend indicator of output is part of national accounts and aims to anticipate the development of value added in the national economy at the level of the whole economy and three main industries (primary production, secondary production and services). Data are produced with indicators and published once a month.
Sector coverage (SIMS 3.3)
The publication includes time series for three main industries (primary production, secondary production and services) and for the whole economy. The source data used in the calculation cover most of the data used in quarterly national accounts. The calculation is performed at the 2-digit level of the classification of industries. Intermediate consumption is not estimated separately, but its volume is assumed to follow the development of the volume of output.
Statistical unit (SIMS 3.5)
The Trend Indicator of Output is mainly based on statistics produced by other statistics.
For manufacturing and private services, the value data sources are primarily the turnover indices and the volume indices of industry and services, and for public services the preliminary data of the wage and salary indices. Producer price indices and indices of wage and salary earnings are utilised as price data. Those acting as source data for primary production are unit volume data on volumes of milk received by dairies, slaughterhouse statistics, crop production statistics, data on market fellings, and unit price data corresponding with these unit volume data.
Statistical population (SIMS 3.6)
The Trend Indicator of Output is combined with source statistics covering all economic activities.
Reference area (SIMS 3.7)
The Trend Indicator of Output is published on the level of the whole country.
The source data may contain turnover data, which also include activities outside the borders of Finland.
As regards turnover indices, the data of the sales inquiry may not fully cover the definition of global production in national accounts.
Time coverage (SIMS 3.8)
The Trend Indicator of Output covers monthly data starting from 1995.
Base period (SIMS 3.9)
The data are in the form of an index so that the average value for the year 2015 is one hundred.
Unit of measure (SIMS 4)
The measurement units are index point figures and change percentages.
Reference period (SIMS 5)
he reference period is a month. The Trend Indicator of Output is published at a lag of around six weeks from the end of the reference month.
In connection with the monthly Trend Indicator, a so-called flash estimate on the development of GDP is published four times a year based on the Trend Indicator data. The reference period is then a quarter.
Classifications (SIMS 3.2)
In the Trend Indicator of Output the data have been classified into three categories according to the Standard Industrial Classification (TOL2008): primary production, secondary production and services.
Concepts and definitions (SIMS 3.4)
Adjustment for seasonal variation
Seasonal adjustment means the estimation of seasonal variation and the elimination of its impact from a time series. The obtained result is a seasonally adjusted time series. The trend of a time series is obtained when both seasonal variation and irregular random variation are eliminated from a time series. Trading or working day adjusted series are in turn obtained when the factors caused by the variation in the number of trading days or weekdays is eliminated from the observation of the original time series. The Tramo/Seats method is used for the seasonal adjustment of time series at Statistics Finland. In the Tramo/Seats method, preadjustment is based on a regression model (which allows for outlying observations, public holidays and the weekday structure) and the seasonal adjustment proper on an ARIMA model constructed for the time series.
Adjustment for working days
An adjustment for working days takes into account influences arising from the number of working days. This means giving consideration to lengths of months, numbers of weekdays and public holidays. Figures adjusted for working days are published for industries where variation in the number of working days has a significant impact on a time series. Compared to adjustment for trading days, adjustment for working days does not take into account the effect of different days of the week.
Trend
Trend describes the long-term development in a time series. A trend series has been adjusted for seasonal and random variations, so that the effects of e.g. weather conditions or short-term labour disputes do not show in it. By contrast, permanent changes, such as growth in demand due to changed taxation, will show in a trend. The direction indicated by the end of a trend should be interpreted with caution. The latter part of a trend indicator may change once it has been updated with data for subsequent months.
Institutional mandate (SIMS 6)
The compilation of statistics is guided by the Statistics Act. The Statistics Act contains provisions on collection of data, processing of data and the obligation to provide data. Besides the Statistics Act, the General Data Protection Regulation, the Data Protection Act and the Act on the Openness of Government Activities are applied to processing of data when producing statistics.
Statistics Finland compiles statistics in line with the EU’s regulations applicable to statistics, which steer the statistical agencies of all EU Member States.
Further information: Statistical legislation
Legal acts and other agreements (SIMS 6.1)
The compilation of statistics is guided by the Statistics Act. The Statistics Act contains provisions on collection of data, processing of data and the obligation to provide data. Besides the Statistics Act, the Data Protection Act and the Act on the Openness of Government Activities are applied to processing of data when producing statistics.
Statistics Finland compiles statistics in line with the EU’s regulations applicable to statistics, which steer the statistical agencies of all EU Member States.
Further information: Statistical legislation
Data sharing (SIMS 6.2)
The quarterly flash estimate is delivered to Eurostat as part of the EU's GDP aggregates.
Source data (SIMS 18.1)
The Trend Indicator of Output is mainly a set of statistics compiled from other statistics. Data on primary production are collected from the data of the Natural Resources Institute Finland's agricultural and forestry statistics. For manufacturing and services, the volume index of industrial output, the volume index of services and the turnover of trade are utilised. In the calculation of the output of public sector industries, as well as the household sector and non-profit institutions, the Tax Administration's register of self-assessed taxes is partly utilised as regards the wages and salaries sums.
Frequency of data collection (SIMS 18.2)
The source data are supplied monthly.
Data collection (SIMS 18.3)
The statistics are mostly comprised of other statistics that are supplied within Statistics Finland.
Statistics Finland has agreed with the Tax Administration that the Tax Administration delivers the data on self-assessed taxes to Statistics Finland monthly on an agreed date.
The data on primary production are drawn from the Natural Resources Institute Finland's statistical database.
Data validation (SIMS 18.4)
The source data for manufacturing and services are validated monthly with the unit that supplied the source data.
Data compilation (SIMS 18.5)
The methodological description can be found on the home page of the statistics.
In short, the process is as follows:
The Trend Indicator of Output is based on output indicators. The indicator series are saved according to the classifications of the national accounts into a database, after which the series are benchmarked to the quarterly national accounts data of the corresponding accuracy. The method is the proportional Denton method.
The newest data for which no corresponding period can be found from quarterly national accounts are extrapolated using either with the BI ratio or with the so-called annual overlap change, depending on the source data. In addition to benchmarked output indicators, benchmarked indicators for intermediate consumption are formed, which match quarterly accounts data in terms of history and which are assumed to develop at the same pace as the volume development of output.
Data at current prices are deflated to the previous year's average prices. Figures at the previous year's average prices are chained with the annual overlap method.
In addition to chain-linked series, seasonally adjusted series and series adjusted for working days are also published.
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method used to process time series. The method is used to remove variation occurring fairly regularly within a year from the data. The Tramo/Seats method and JDemetra+ software are used in the statistics. In addition, seasonal adjustment is based on the ESS Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment.
User needs (SIMS 12.1)
Economic research institutes, banks and consulting firms prepare situation reports and forecasts on economic development utilising the data of the Trend Indicator of Output and quarterly national accounts.
Overall accuracy (SIMS 13.1)
The accuracy of the Trend Indicator of Output can be assessed with the help of the revision table presented in connection with the publication. Revisions are caused either by revisions to the source data or benchmarking against quarterly national accounts. Because the time series is fully recalculated every round, revisions to old years are also possible, if, for example, the levels of annual national accounts change and the changes are carried over to the quarterly national accounts through benchmarking and further to the Trend Indicator of Output.
Quality assurance (SIMS 11.1)
Quality management requires comprehensive guidance of activities. The European Statistics Code of Practice forms the basis for the common quality system of the European Statistical System.
The Code of Practice is based on 16 principles that concern statistical authorities' independence, accountability and the quality of the processes and data to be published.
The principles are in line with the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics approved by the United Nations Statistics Commission and are supplementary to them. The quality criteria of Official Statistics of Finland are compatible with the European Statistics Code of Practice.
Further information: European Statistics Code of Practice | Statistics Finland and Recommendations of the Advisory Board of Official Statistics of Finland | Statistics Finland
Quality assessment (SIMS 11.2)
Official Statistics of Finland (OSF) are a comprehensive collection of statistics describing the development and state of society. They comprise nearly 300 sets of statistics on 26 different topics. The producers of Official Statistics of Finland have approved a common quality assurance in which they commit to common quality criteria and quality assurance measures.
The quality criteria of Official Statistics of Finland are compatible with the European Statistics Code of Practice. The good practices followed in the statistics are presented in Statistics Finland's Quality Guidelines for Official Statistics handbook.
Data revision - policy (SIMS 17.1)
Revisions – i.e. improvements in the accuracy of statistical data already published – are a normal feature of statistical production and result in improved quality of statistics. The principle is that statistical data are based on the best available data and information concerning the statistical phenomenon. On the other hand, the revisions are communicated as transparently as possible in advance. Advance communication ensures that the users can prepare for the data revisions.
The reason why data in statistical releases become revised is often caused by the data becoming supplemented. Then the new, revised statistical figure is based on a wider information basis and describes the phenomenon more accurately than before.
Revisions of statistical data may also be caused by the calculation method used, such as annual benchmarking or updating of weight structures. Changes of base years and used classifications may also cause revisions to data.
Seasonally adjusted data in statistics on economic trends become revised because of the calculation method used. Additional information on a new time series observation is exploited in model-based calculation methods and this is reflected as changes in previous releases. Revisions of the latest figures to be seasonally adjusted are elaborated on in the releases and quality reports of statistics.
A summary table of the revisions that have taken place is also published in connection with key statistics on economic trends and some annual statistics. The table shows how the data for the statistical reference periods have changed between the first and the most recent statistical release.
Timeliness (SIMS 14.1)
The Trend Indicator of Output is published some 45 days from the end of the statistical reference month.
Punctuality (SIMS 14.2)
There is no delay in the release of the Trend Indicator of Output. The data have been published on the day set in the calendar.
Comparability - geographical (SIMS 15.1)
European definitions according to the STS Regulation are used in the production of the statistics, so the data of the statistics are internationally comparable and cover the whole of Finland.
Comparability - over time (SIMS 15.2)
The time series of the Trend Indicator of Output are congruent with the time series of quarterly national accounts concerning value added with respect to the same point in time.
Coherence – cross domain (SIMS 15.3)
The calculation of the Trend Indicator of Output is based on output indicators. Because intermediate consumption, taxes on products and subsidies on products are not separately estimated, the Trend Indicator of Output does not directly measure the development of gross domestic product. However, historical time series correspond to value added in quarterly national accounts. The flash estimate aims to estimate taxes on products and subsidies on products.
Due to the revision method, the series concerning sub-industries of the Trend Indicator of Output are not directly comparable with the source statistics.
Release calendar (SIMS 8.1)
Statistics Finland publishes new statistical data at 8 am on weekdays in its web service. The release times of statistics are given in advance in the release calendar available in the web service. The data become public after they have been updated in the web service.
Further information: Publication principles for statistics at Statistics Finland
Release calendar access (SIMS 8.2)
Statistics Finland's release calendar Future publications
Future publications of the statistics can be found on the page of the statistics at: Future publications of the statistics
User access (SIMS 8.3)
The data are released to all users at the same time. Statistical data may be processed at Statistics Finland and information on them may be given before release only by persons involved in the production of the statistics concerned or who need the data of the statistics concerned in their own work before the data are published.
Further information: Publication principles for statistics
Unless otherwise specifically stated in connection with the product, data or service concerned, Statistics Finland is the producer and copyright owner of the data. The terms of use for statistical data.
Frequency of dissemination (SIMS 9)
The data of the statistics are published monthly on Statistics Finland's website.
News release (SIMS 10.1)
The release is published monthly/annually/quarterly on the home page of the statistics.
Publications (SIMS 10.2)
The flash estimate is also published by Eurostat as part of the EU-27 or euro area (EA-19) aggregate.
Online database (SIMS 10.3)
The database tables of the statistics can be found in the StatFin database.
Micro-data access (SIMS 10.4)
The Trend Indicator of Output is mainly compiled from other statistics whose micro level data are not available as a rule.
Documentation on methodology (SIMS 10.6)
The methodological description of the Trend Indicator of Output can be found on the home page of the statistics. The description contains a detailed report on the benchmarking, extrapolation, chaining and seasonal adjustment methods used in the compilation of the statistics.
Confidentiality - policy (SIMS 7.1)
The data protection of data collected for statistical purposes is guaranteed. The compilation of statistics is guided by the Statistics Act. Alongside the Statistics Act, the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation and the Finnish Data Protection Act are applied to the processing of personal data. Provisions on the confidentiality of data collected for statistical purposes are laid down in the Act on the Openness of Government Activities.
The data are processed only by persons who need the data in their work. The use of data is restricted by usage rights. All persons employed by Statistics Finland have signed a pledge of secrecy, where they have obliged to keep secret the data prescribed as confidential by virtue of the Statistics Act or the Act on the Openness of Government Activities.
Further information: Data protection | Statistics Finland (stat.fi)
Confidentiality - data treatment (SIMS 7.2)
The data are calculated at the 2-digit level but aggregated to the level of three main industries in the publication.