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Published: 27 July 2015

Consumer confidence continued to decline in July

The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood at 6.9 in July, having been 10.8 in June and 15.5 in May. Last year in July, the CCI received the value 9.4. The long-term average for the CCI is 11.8. The data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,231 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 17 July.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

In July, confidence in all four components of the CCI deteriorated from the previous month, as well as from twelve months back. Consumers' views concerning their own and Finland's economy were cautious and the views about unemployment were gloomy. Views on the household's saving possibilities were at the long-term average level in July.

In July, consumers regarded the time more favourable for raising a loan than for buying durable goods or, in particular, saving. In July, employed consumers felt personally more threatened by unemployment than on average, as was the case also in June and in July 2014.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In July, 33 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months, while 26 per cent of them thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. The respective proportions in June were 36 and 22 per cent.

In all, 25 per cent of consumers believed in July that their own economy would improve while 15 per cent of them feared it would worsen over the year.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether, 47 per cent of consumers thought in July that unemployment would increase over the year, and 17 per cent of them believed it would decrease. The respective proportions in June were 41 and 21 per cent.

Twenty-three per cent of employed persons reckoned in July that their personal threat of unemployment had grown over the past few months and 12 per cent thought it had lessened. Nineteen per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in July that consumer prices would go up by 1.6 per cent over the next 12 months. In July 2014, the predicted inflation rate was 2.7 per cent, and its long-term average is 2.2 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In July, 47 per cent of consumers thought the time was favourable for buying durable goods. Thirty-three per cent of consumers planned on reducing and only 19 per cent planned on increasing their spending on durable goods over the next 12 months. Sixteen per cent of households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and seven per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Nineteen per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

Saving was considered worthwhile by 55 per cent of consumers in July. In all, 62 per cent of households had been able to lay aside some money and 73 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months. Households mostly save for a rainy day or for holiday making. After the popular fixed-term or investment accounts, the most common investment targets are investment funds.

In July, 64 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan. Nevertheless, only 11 per cent of households were planning to raise a loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

	Average 10/1995-	Max. 10/1995-	Min. 10/1995-	07/2014	06/2015	07/2015	Outlook
A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI = (B2+B4+B7+D2)/4	11,8	22,9	-6,5	9,4	10,8	6,9	-
B2 Own economy in 12 months' time (balance)	8,4	14,1	2,3	6,3	6,3	5,8	-
B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time (balance)	3,2	25,3	-27,1	5,3	5,7	2,1	=
B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per cent)	2,2	4,6	0,6	2,7	1,4	1,6
B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time (balance)	-3,4	27,6	-51,1	-15,0	-11,4	-17,4	-
B8 Own threat of unemployment now (balance)	-1,2	7,6	-18,8	-6,0	-6,2	-6,6	-
C1 Favourability of time for purchasing durables (balance)	18,2	41,8	-14,2	5,0	9,7	17,9	=
C2 Favourability of time for saving (balance)	10,8	36,8	-19,6	4,3	2,1	6,5	-
C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan (balance)	16,9	42,0	-47,1	11,7	21,5	19,0	=
D2 Household's saving possibilities in the next 12 months (balance)	39,0	52,2	10,9	40,8	42,7	37,4	=

The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is 2,350 persons. In July 2015, the non-response rate of the Consumer Survey was 47.6 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as those who could not be contacted.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU countries are released on the European Commission website: European Commission, DG ECFIN, Business and Consumer Survey Results; http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm

Source: Consumer Survey 2015, July. Statistics Finland

Inquiries: Pertti Kangassalo 029 551 3598, consumer.survey@stat.fi

Director in charge: Riitta Harala

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• 1. Method of the Consumer Survey (27.7.2015)

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Appendix tables

• Appendix table 1. Consumers' views and intentions (27.7.2015)

Figures

• Appendix figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator (CCI) (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 2. Micro and macro indicators (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 3. Own economy (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 4. Finland's economy (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 5. Inflation (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 6. Unemployment (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 7. Favourability of time for (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 8. Household's financial situation and saving possibilities (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 9. Household's intentions to raise a loan, next 12 months (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure10. Spending on durables, next 12 months vs last 12 months (27.7.2015)
• Appendix figure 11. Household's intentions to buy (27.7.2015)

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Updated 27.7.2015